铜系列报告（一）：铜材加工费触底回升，供应端出清在即，需求有望保持增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The copper processing industry is positioned in the downstream of the copper supply chain, with processing fees showing signs of recovery after a prolonged decline. The pricing model for copper processing products is based on copper prices plus processing fees, which have started to rebound as copper prices remain high [4][9][13]. - The overall production growth rate of copper materials has been negative, with a concentration of production among leading enterprises, indicating a potential increase in market concentration and improved pricing power for leading firms [5][29]. - The apparent consumption of copper continues to grow, driven by sectors such as transportation, and is expected to benefit from supportive macroeconomic policies [30][36][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Processing - Processing Fees Recovery - The copper processing industry is in the downstream segment of the copper supply chain, with a wide range of applications in various sectors [8]. - Copper prices have remained high since 2024, leading to a recovery in processing fees after a period of decline [9][13]. 2. Supply Side - Overall Growth Rate Decline - The production growth rate of copper materials was negative in 2023 and the first eleven months of 2024, with a total production of 20.774 million tons, down 1.5% year-on-year [5][14]. - The distribution of copper material enterprises is concentrated in five provinces: Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Anhui [18]. - The industry is seeing a consolidation trend, with smaller firms facing challenges, leading to an increase in market concentration among larger enterprises [24][29]. 3. Demand - Sustained Growth in Apparent Consumption - The apparent consumption of copper has shown consistent growth, with a total of 2.021 million tons in 2023, up 6.31% year-on-year [30]. - The primary growth driver for copper demand is expected to come from the transportation sector, with projected consumption of 1.576 million tons in 2024, growing at a rate of 2.6% [36]. - Supportive macroeconomic policies are anticipated to stimulate downstream economic activity and copper demand [38]. 4. Investment Strategy - Key companies to watch in the copper processing sector include: - Jintian Copper: A leading manufacturer with a compound annual growth rate of 12% in copper production from 2021 to 2023, with a total output of 1.9122 million tons in 2023 [46]. - Chuangjiang New Materials: Recognized as a top enterprise in copper strip production, with an annual output exceeding 300,000 tons in 2023 [50]. - Hailiang Co.: Produces a wide range of copper materials, with steady revenue growth and a focus on high-end products [52]. - Xinke Materials: A pioneer in high-precision copper alloy materials, with a strong market position in specialized products [54].