食品饮料行业周报：12月社零提速，积极验证旺季动销

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [57]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.10% increase last week, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.04 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 sectors [4][10]. - December retail sales accelerated with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, driven by a 10.4% growth in the tobacco and alcohol category, attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival [4][29]. - Guizhou Moutai reported a revenue of 187.19 billion yuan for 2024, a 13.3% increase year-on-year, with a profit of 120.77 billion yuan, up 10.2% [4][51]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for high-end liquor and regional leaders, suggesting a focus on premium products in the liquor sector [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance was led by snacks and baked goods, which rose by 8.54% and 7.45% respectively [4][10]. - Top-performing stocks included Laiyifen (+31.79%), Yiming Food (+30.72%), and Haoxiangni (+26.70%) [4][10]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - The report notes that the price of Moutai's original box is 2245 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous month, while the scattered bottle price remains stable at 2220 yuan [19][20]. - Beer production in November reached 1.695 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [25]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report mentions a 38.8% increase in wine imports in 2024, reflecting a growing demand for imported products [51]. - New standards for greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint evaluation in the liquor industry were approved and will take effect on January 20, 2025 [52]. 4. Core Company Updates - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1-1.1 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 55.11%-70.62% [54]. - Wuliangye announced a cash dividend of 25.76 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 10 billion yuan [54].