银行业12月金融数据点评：居民中长贷延续改善，企业贷款偏弱

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [2][25] Core Insights - The report highlights an improvement in long-term loans for residents, while corporate loans remain weak, particularly in the context of debt replacement and financing structures [7][25] - The total amount of RMB loans increased by 990 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.61%, but the structure of loans indicates ongoing weakness in credit demand [7][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policies and their effects on the economy, suggesting that if economic expectations improve, attention should be given to core assets in the banking sector [25] Summary by Sections Loan Data - As of December 2024, the total RMB loan balance reached 255.68 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.61%. Short-term loans accounted for 63.62 trillion, with a growth rate of 5.09%, while medium to long-term loans stood at 170.91 trillion, growing at 7.78% [8][18] - In December, the increase in loans was 990 billion, which is 180 billion less than the same month last year. Short-term loans and bill financing saw an increase of 4.888 trillion, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 6.674 trillion [8][15] Resident and Corporate Loans - December saw an increase of 3.5 trillion in resident loans, with medium to long-term loans improving by 1.538 trillion, largely due to prior real estate support policies [15][25] - Corporate loans were weaker, with a decrease of 4.016 trillion in total corporate loans, including a significant drop of 8.212 trillion in medium to long-term loans [15][25] Deposit Trends - The total RMB deposit balance was 302.25 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3%. However, there was a decrease of 1.4 trillion in December, indicating a significant drop in fiscal deposits [18][19] - Household deposits increased by 2.12 trillion, while corporate deposits rose by 14.892 trillion, reflecting a shift in financial flows towards the real economy [19][25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite the improvement in resident long-term loans, the overall credit structure remains weak. It recommends focusing on state-owned banks with stable earnings and high dividends, such as China Construction Bank, while keeping an eye on fiscal policies and their impacts [25]