银行投资观察：国债利率拐点处，正式转向复苏交易

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a shift towards recovery trading as the government bond yield reaches a turning point, with financial data showing signs of improvement [18][19] - The banking sector has shown a general upward trend, with H-shares outperforming A-shares [16][18] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The banking sector index increased by 1.27% during the observation period from January 13 to January 17, 2025, ranking 29th among 30 sectors, underperforming the Wind All A index by approximately 2.58 percentage points [45] - The average price of bank convertible bonds rose by 0.31%, lagging behind the Zhongzheng convertible bond index by 1.00 percentage point [17][45] Individual Stock Performance - The top three performing A-share banks were Qilu Bank (+4.87%), Su Nong Bank (+4.63%), and China Merchants Bank (+4.44%) [16] - In the H-share market, China Merchants Bank led with an increase of 8.28%, followed by Jiangxi Bank (+4.35%) and Qingdao Bank (+4.21%) [16] Profit Forecasts - The report notes that the earnings growth expectations for 2024 remain largely unchanged for A-share banks, with specific mentions of changes in expectations for Su Nong Bank and Ruifeng Bank [17][18]