银行跨境流动性跟踪：人民币小幅升值，中美利差大幅收窄

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a slight appreciation of the Renminbi and a significant narrowing of the China-US interest rate spread, with the 10-year China-US Treasury yield spread narrowing by 19 basis points to -2.95% [5][16] - The report estimates a net outflow of cross-border funds in January 2025 to be approximately 3,958 billion CNY, accounting for nearly 6% of the social financing increment [5][18] - The report indicates that the net outflow from goods trade, service trade, and financial accounts in January 2025 is estimated to be 6,484 billion CNY, representing about 10% of the social financing increment [5][18] Summary by Sections Cross-Border Fund Outflow - The report discusses the components of cross-border fund flows, which include goods trade, service trade, and financial accounts. It emphasizes that while goods trade impacts corporate liquidity and equity markets, it does not directly affect the bank's base currency [16] - The estimated net outflow for January 2025 from service trade and financial accounts is projected to be 3,958 billion CNY, which is about 6% of the social financing increment [17][18] Currency Exchange and Settlement - In December, the net settlement of banks for clients weakened, primarily due to a significant seasonal decline in service trade. The net settlement was -751 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 625 billion CNY [24] - The report notes that the exchange rate for the Renminbi against a basket of currencies showed a slight appreciation, with the USD, EUR, JPY, and GBP showing respective changes of -0.16%, +0.45%, +1.27%, and +0.06% [5][24] Interest Rate Spread - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the 10-year China-US interest rate spread, which has implications for cross-border capital flows and investment strategies [5][16] - The report also mentions that the actual annual yield from arbitrage trading of 10-year US Treasuries in Renminbi was 3.24%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points from the previous period [5][16] Economic Indicators - The report provides insights into major economic indicators, noting that China's nominal GDP growth in Q4 2024 was 7.43% year-on-year, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate [5][16] - It also mentions that the US core inflation has slowed down, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [5][16]