银行资负跟踪：短端压力会缓解，长债压力刚开始

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - Short-term pressure is expected to ease, while long-term bond pressure is just beginning [8] - The central bank's net injection is countering MLF maturity, leading to a significant rise in funding rates [16] - The liquidity gap before the Spring Festival is projected to be around 39,000 million CNY [18] Summary by Sections Section 1: Short-term and Long-term Pressure - The central bank conducted a 14,848 million CNY 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a rate of 1.50%, and faced MLF maturity of 9,950 million CNY, resulting in a net injection of 4,589 million CNY [16] - The liquidity environment is expected to revert to the state seen in early December, necessitating adjustments in the interest rate market [18] Section 2: Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The funding rates have significantly increased, with DR001, DR007, DR014, DR021, and DR1M rising by 18.5bp, 37.7bp, 83.2bp, 79.7bp, and 75.3bp respectively [19] - The NCD weighted average issuance rate increased by 8bp, with net financing scale for major banks showing a recovery [21] Section 3: Bank Financing Tracking - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) reached 5,934 million CNY, with a net financing scale of 2,420 million CNY [21] - The commercial bank bond market saw a slight increase in credit spreads, with the total scale of commercial bank bonds at 31,200 million CNY [23]