有色金属新材料2025年度策略报告：“铝”创辉煌，黄金长牛

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Gold: Multiple factors do not change the long-term positive logic, and gold has entered a left-side layout interval. The price pullback in November 2024 was mainly due to the U.S. election events and short-term economic data, indicating that the current gold price may have partially or fully reflected the corresponding marginal changes, with a bottom range now evident. The upward logic for gold remains intact, with "rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" expected to continue catalyzing [3][47] - Aluminum: The long-term trend of alumina is declining, preparing for insufficient electrolytic aluminum capacity. From the monthly supply-demand balance, the alumina shortage has eased since November 2024, and with the release of 7.2 million tons of alumina capacity in the first half of 2025, alumina may shift from shortage to surplus. The expected new capacity of 13.2 million tons in 2025 can meet the demand for electrolytic aluminum by about 2.87 million tons, indicating a long-term downward trend for alumina [3][60] - Copper: With a consensus on ore shortages, copper prices are expected to reach new highs. The long-term contract for TC/RC in 2025 is set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound, with smelting and processing fees at historical lows. The average smelting cost is estimated at $35-40, leading to losses for smelters, and the shortage is gradually transmitting from the ore end to the metal end. Demand from new energy sectors like wind power, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles is expected to sustain copper demand growth [3][102] - Lead and Zinc: Supply contraction is pushing prices higher. Zinc supply has significantly contracted, with global zinc concentrate production hitting a five-year low in the first ten months of 2024, leading to tight refined zinc supply and rising prices. The lead supply is also tightening, with refined lead supply-demand balance shifting to a shortage, causing prices to rise [3][117] - Lithium: The extent of oversupply is narrowing, with the lithium price center expected to be around 80,000 yuan per ton in 2025. The continuous decline in lithium prices has led to the reduction of high-cost lithium mines, and the supply growth rate is weakening. The demand for lithium carbonate is projected to reach 143,000 tons in 2025, a 19% increase year-on-year [5][134] Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic Outlook - The global economic growth is expected to remain stable at 3.2% in 2025, with uncertainties rising [9] - The IMF has adjusted its forecasts for various regions, with emerging markets showing mixed results [10] 2. Gold - The price pullback in November 2024 was primarily due to U.S. election events and economic data, indicating a potential bottom range for gold prices [26] - The upward logic for gold remains intact, supported by central bank purchases and inflation expectations [28][44] - Recommended stocks include Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company [29] 3. Aluminum - The alumina market is transitioning from shortage to surplus, with a significant increase in production capacity expected [60] - The electrolytic aluminum market is projected to face a supply shortage, with demand expected to exceed production capacity [88] 4. Copper - The copper market is facing a supply-demand turning point, with prices expected to reach new highs due to increasing demand from renewable energy sectors [102] - The supply-demand balance is projected to shift from surplus to deficit in the coming years [104] 5. Lead and Zinc - The zinc market is experiencing a supply contraction, leading to rising prices and expanding miner profits [108] - The lead market is also tightening, with refined lead supply-demand balance shifting to a shortage [117] 6. Lithium - The lithium market is expected to see a narrowing of oversupply, with prices stabilizing around 80,000 yuan per ton in 2025 [134] - Demand for lithium carbonate is projected to grow significantly, driven by electric vehicle policies [130] 7. New Materials - The new materials sector is expected to benefit from growth in AI, automotive, and renewable energy applications [6][141] - Key areas include rare earth permanent magnets and soft magnetic materials, with significant demand growth anticipated [146][151]