煤炭行业周报：节前成交冷淡，煤价遭受压制

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is under pressure due to weak supply and demand, with market expectations turning pessimistic as some traders are selling at low prices [6][13] - The coal sector's performance is lagging behind the overall equity market, despite a general market uptrend [7][42] - The focus remains on coal companies with high dividend yields, as the sector's net profits are expected to decline [42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market saw an overall increase, with the coal sector's performance trailing behind, as the coal index rose only 1.64% compared to the broader market indices [7][10] - Major coal companies reported lower expected net profits for 2024 compared to the previous year, indicating a general weakness in the coal sector [7][42] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices are facing downward pressure due to weak demand from downstream industries and high inventory levels at power plants [13][14] - The average price for thermal coal at various production sites has decreased, with significant drops noted in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi [14][18] - Port inventories of thermal coal have increased, reflecting a lack of strong demand from downstream buyers [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continue to decline, with market sentiment remaining pessimistic as some regions have initiated price reductions for coke [26][27] - The supply side is expected to tighten as coal mines prepare for holiday shutdowns, but demand remains weak due to seasonal factors [26][30] - The overall inventory levels for coking coal are high, which may continue to suppress prices in the short term [30] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim ports has increased, but remains at historical lows, while shipping rates continue to decline [36][38] - The average shipping rates for coal from Qinhuangdao to various ports have decreased, indicating a softening in the shipping market [36] Industry News - In 2024, China imported 54,269.7 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [37] - The Xinjiang railway has successfully transported over 90 million tons of coal, showcasing the region's economic resilience [37] - Shandong province is planning large-scale coal power projects to enhance energy supply stability [39]