Group 1: US Economic Indicators - US CPI in December 2024 increased by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations, while core CPI was lower than expected at 3.2%[12] - US PPI in December 2024 rose by 3.3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.5%, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%[14] - US retail sales in December 2024 rose by 0.45% month-on-month, below the expected 0.6%, marking the lowest growth since August 2024[16] - New housing starts in December 2024 reached 1.499 million, the highest since February 2024, exceeding expectations of 1.32 million[18] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is currently at 2.1%, down from 6.4% a week prior[21] - Fed officials express a dovish stance, with some suggesting that further rate cuts may be possible if inflation data continues to improve[8] - The average expected policy rate by the end of 2025 is 3.87%, slightly higher than the previous week's 3.82%[21] Group 3: Global Market Trends - Global stock markets generally rose, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increasing by 2.9%, 3.7%, and 2.4% respectively[26] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping 16 basis points to 4.61%[30] - Oil prices increased, with Brent and WTI rising by 1.3% and 1.7% respectively, supported by easing inflation and improving demand outlook from China[33] Group 4: International Economic Policies - The European Central Bank indicates that any rate cuts will be cautious and gradual, with a consensus to lower rates by 25 basis points if economic conditions allow[23] - Japan's central bank is set to discuss potential interest rate hikes in its upcoming meeting, reflecting improved economic and inflation forecasts[25]
海外宏观周报：美国通胀和零售均降温
Ping An Securities·2025-01-20 13:46