第一创业：晨会纪要-20250120

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - From December 2024 to January 19, 2025, 957 companies announced their earnings forecasts for 2024, with only 44% (425 companies) expecting profits and 40% (384 companies) anticipating year-on-year growth. However, there was an improvement in Q4 performance, aligning with the GDP growth trend reported by the National Bureau of Statistics [2] - Among the companies that announced their forecasts before January 17, 72% expected profits, and 58% anticipated positive year-on-year growth. In contrast, from January 17 to 19, only 35% of the 716 companies forecasted profits, and 34% expected positive growth, indicating a significant decline in optimistic forecasts [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - Companies with high export revenue showed a higher proportion of profit growth. The semiconductor storage, home appliance, IoT, and equipment sub-industries had a notable increase in profit forecasts. Additionally, the PCB industry's HDI board supply chain, optical modules, optical lenses, home refrigeration equipment, automotive parts, and pharmaceuticals (antibiotics, aquaculture, beer, and express shipping) also showed relatively high profit growth expectations [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Haida Group, primarily engaged in feed and pig farming, forecasted a net profit of between 4.25 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.04% to 75.10%. The growth is attributed to the rebound in pig prices and effective futures hedging, alongside a 9% increase in its feed business, which generated 96 billion yuan in revenue last year [5] - Qingmu Technology, focused on online retail services, projected a net profit growth of 63.20% to 92.00% for 2024. The growth is driven by a 30% increase in its core e-commerce operation services and significant contributions from its brand incubation business, which generated 200 million yuan in revenue, compared to 1 billion yuan for the entire year of 2023 [6]