煤炭行业周报：业绩预告陆续启动，关注宏观预期改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the coal industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that performance forecasts are gradually being released, and there is a focus on improving macroeconomic expectations [1]. - It notes that both supply and demand for thermal coal are weak, leading to a downward trend in coal prices, but anticipates a recovery in demand post-holiday due to economic stabilization policies [3][8]. - The report emphasizes that metallurgical coal prices are stabilizing due to improved macroeconomic expectations and stable downstream demand [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - Thermal Coal: Weak supply and demand have resulted in a decline in coal prices. As of January 17, the spot price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 767 RMB/ton, down 0.90% week-on-week [3][20]. - Metallurgical Coal: Prices are stabilizing with the main coking coal price at 1,520 RMB/ton as of January 17, remaining unchanged [4][28]. - Coking Steel Chain: Demand expectations are improving, leading to a stabilization in coke prices, with the average price at 1,730 RMB/ton as of January 17 [5][34]. - Coal Transportation: The coastal coal transportation price index was 485.28 points, down 6.22% week-on-week, indicating weak demand [6][38]. - Coal-related Futures: Futures prices for coking coal and coke have increased, reflecting improved macroeconomic expectations [43][45]. 2. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector has seen a rebound but has not outperformed the broader market index, with the CITIC coal index closing at 3,455.94 points, up 1.59% [7][47]. - Key stocks in the coal mining sector, such as Anyuan Coal Industry and Jinkong Coal Industry, have shown significant gains [7][47]. 3. Industry News Summary - The report includes updates on national economic performance, indicating a GDP growth of 5.0% in 2024, which may positively impact coal demand [51]. - It also discusses the record coal import levels in 2024, driven by competitive pricing and reduced hydropower generation, highlighting the complex interplay between energy security and environmental commitments [52]. 4. Important Announcements from Listed Companies - Several companies, including Shanxi Black Cat and Lu'an Environmental Energy, have issued profit warnings for 2024, indicating significant declines in net profits compared to the previous year [54][55]. 5. Next Week's Views and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks such as Pingmei Shenma Energy, Huabei Mining, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, as well as stable high-dividend stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [8][56].