食品饮料行业2025年度策略报告：珍惜大周期，新质正孕育

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, particularly highlighting high-end liquor and consumer goods as attractive investment opportunities [6][162]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is gradually bottoming out, with valuations in a high cost-performance range. As of January 10, 2025, the overall market capitalization of the food and beverage industry is 45,789 billion yuan, with a PE (TTM) valuation of 19.90 times, which is at the 12%/7%/7% percentile levels of the past 3/5/10 years [1][34]. - Retail sales of "grain, oil, food," beverages, and tobacco products in China from January to November 2024 reached 1.96 trillion, 0.29 trillion, and 0.55 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +9.9%, +3.2%, and +5.2% [1][18]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the industry, with A-share listed companies in the food and beverage sector reporting total revenue growth of +3.92% and net profit growth of +10.43% in the first three quarters of 2024 [1][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Food and Beverage Cycle - Economic signals are positive, with the food and beverage sector expected to benefit from pro-cyclical policies. GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2024 is reported at 4.06% [15][16]. - The performance of A-share listed companies shows a gradual decline in growth rates, with total revenue and net profit growth slowing down in the third quarter of 2024 [23][28]. - The dividend rate for the food and beverage sector has been steadily increasing, with a cash dividend rate of 55.97% in 2023 [51][53]. 2. Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is focusing on quality improvement while reducing growth rates, with revenue growth of 9.27% and net profit growth of 10.68% reported for the first three quarters of 2024 [2][63]. - The sector is expected to enhance shareholder returns through increased dividends, with leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye actively rewarding shareholders [2][70]. 3. Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector, particularly snacks and soft drinks, is showing strong performance, with the snack sector's revenue growing by 58.03% in the first three quarters of 2024 [3][139]. - The dividend yield for various segments within consumer goods, including snacks and soft drinks, exceeds 3% [3][74]. 4. Investment Recommendations - For high-end liquor, companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended due to their strong brand power and cash flow [4][162]. - In the consumer goods sector, companies such as Yili, New Dairy, and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted for their robust fundamentals and market positions [4][162].