有色金属行业：基于特朗普1.0的复盘-特朗普2.0铜金价格前瞻

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the strong inertia of Trump's policies, suggesting that the market is currently more focused on the policy rhythm and intensity of the 2.0 era. A review of gold and copper prices during the 1.0 period is conducted to provide insights for the 2.0 price trends [3] - It is anticipated that in the first half of 2025, gold prices will perform better, while copper prices are expected to outperform in the second half of 2025. Despite concerns over trade friction, there is a belief that copper prices should not be overly pessimistic due to ongoing supply constraints [3] - The report outlines that Trump's policies may lead to a significant impact on copper supply and demand, with potential adjustments in mining project approval times and an estimated impact on copper production capacity of around 650,000 tons [3] Summary by Sections Trump 1.0 Copper and Gold Price Review - In 2017, both gold and copper prices rose significantly, with copper prices increasing by 30% and gold prices by 13% due to a weak dollar and economic expansion [11] - In 2018, trade tensions led to a strong dollar, resulting in a 17% decline in copper prices and a 2% decline in gold prices [27] - In 2019, copper prices increased by 3% while gold prices rose by 18%, influenced by interest rate cuts and ongoing trade tensions [45] Outlook for Trump 2.0 - The report suggests that Trump's policy sequence will likely influence gold and copper prices differently in 2025, with gold expected to perform better in the first half and copper in the second half [3][76] - The anticipated policies include reversing Biden's executive orders, cutting spending, and imposing tariffs before introducing tax cuts [3][76] - The report highlights that the current supply constraints in the copper market provide a supportive bottom for prices, contrasting with the 1.0 period where supply was more stable [3]