YADEA(01585) 国元国际控股·2025-01-21 01:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 15.3 per share, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of HKD 12.8 [1][5][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face revenue and profit pressure in 2024 due to a product inventory cycle, with total sales of electric scooters and bicycles projected to decrease from 8,210,700 units in the first half of 2023 to 6,382,600 units in the first half of 2024, resulting in a revenue drop of approximately 15.4% [3][9]. - The release of the new "Electric Bicycle Safety Technical Specification" is anticipated to boost industry demand in 2025, as consumers who were previously hesitant are expected to convert their intent into purchases [4][10][15]. - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 278.5 billion in 2024 (down 20%), RMB 342.5 billion in 2025 (up 23%), and RMB 393.9 billion in 2026 (up 15%), with net profits expected to be RMB 13.1 billion (down 50.5%), RMB 25.8 billion (up 97.5%), and RMB 34 billion (up 31.6%) respectively [5][15][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 34,800.7 million in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 16.8%. However, a decline to RMB 27,851.9 million is expected in 2024, representing a 20% decrease [6][19]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 2,640.2 million, with a projected drop to RMB 1,307.9 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 2,583.6 million in 2025 and RMB 3,401.3 million in 2026 [6][19]. Market Dynamics - The new safety standards are expected to enhance the overall safety and performance of electric bicycles, which may lead to increased consumer confidence and demand in the market [10][12]. - The company is well-positioned in the domestic market due to its strong R&D, marketing, and channel management capabilities, while also expanding its overseas business [15].