Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Arrow Home Group (001322 SZ) with a 12-month target price of RMB 6 1, reflecting a 27 6% downside from the current price of RMB 8 42 [1][9] Core Views - Arrow Home Group's Q4 2024 revenue growth showed a sequential recovery, in line with expectations, but profitability remains under pressure due to intense industry competition [1] - The company's 2024 revenue was RMB 7 15 billion, down 6 5% YoY, primarily due to increased competition in the sanitary ware industry [4] - Net profit for 2024 was RMB 50-70 million, a significant decline of 83%-88% YoY, driven by price competition and reduced operating leverage [4] - Gross margin for 2024 fell by 2 06 percentage points YoY, impacted by weak pricing and rising expense ratios [4] - The report revised down the EPS forecasts for 2025-26 by 12%-27% to reflect the latest performance guidance [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: 2024 revenue was RMB 7 15 billion, down 6 5% YoY, with Q4 revenue showing a low single-digit YoY decline, narrowing from the -16%/-6% declines in Q2/Q3 [4] - Profitability: 2024 net profit was RMB 50-70 million, down 83%-88% YoY, with Q4 net profit at RMB 18-38 million, a 72%-87% YoY decline but an improvement from Q3 losses [4] - Gross Margin: 2024 gross margin was 24 9%, down 2 06 percentage points YoY, with 2025-26 gross margins expected to recover to 26 5% and 27 8%, respectively [5] - Operating Margin: 2024 operating margin was 1 0%, down 5 05 percentage points YoY, with 2025-26 operating margins forecasted at 3 9% and 6 3% [5] - EPS: 2024 EPS was RMB 0 06, down 67 8% YoY, with 2025-26 EPS forecasts revised to RMB 0 28 and RMB 0 47, respectively [5] Industry and Market Position - Arrow Home Group is the largest domestic sanitary ware brand and a leader in the smart toilet market, which has low penetration rates [8] - The report is optimistic about long-term growth in smart toilet penetration and import substitution but expects short-term pressure from weak retail demand and the real estate market [8] - Increased competition and potential consumer downgrading in the smart toilet market are expected to pressure margins in the near term [8] Valuation and Forecasts - The 12-month target price of RMB 6 1 is based on a 14x exit P/E multiple applied to the 2026 EPS forecast, discounted back to 2025 at a 9 8% cost of equity [2][9] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-26 are RMB 7 63 billion and RMB 7 90 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 6 8% and 3 6% [5] - Net income forecasts for 2025-26 are RMB 273 million and RMB 457 million, reflecting significant YoY growth of 355 3% and 67 3%, respectively [5]
箭牌家居：2024年业绩预告：收入改善但利润率仍然承压；中性