OPPEIN(603833) 广发证券·2025-01-21 02:59Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 61.72 CNY and a fair value of 71.30 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to see profit improvement in Q4, driven by the effects of the "old-for-new" policy [1]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for 2024, estimated between 2.58 billion to 2.88 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5% to 15% [7]. - The company is implementing a "big home" strategy to counteract the challenges posed by a sluggish real estate market and changing industry dynamics [7]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to be 19.783 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 13.2% from 2023 [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 4.141 billion CNY in 2024 to 4.301 billion CNY in 2025 [2]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 2.742 billion CNY, a decline of 9.7% compared to 2023 [2]. - The company’s EPS is expected to be 4.50 CNY in 2024, with a projected increase to 4.75 CNY in 2025 [2]. Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for the company improved to 35.54% in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of approximately 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 14.63%, up by about 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 14.0% in 2024, decreasing slightly from 16.8% in 2023 [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to enhance its market share through category and channel expansion, leveraging its scale advantages [7]. - The anticipated recovery in the home consumption market is expected to be supported by a series of consumption promotion policies and new national subsidies in 2025 [7]. - The company maintains its leading position in the custom home furnishing sector while innovating its business model [7].