宏观双周报：扩内需仍待政策加力

Economic Performance - Q4 2024 GDP growth reached 5.4%, exceeding the consensus forecast of 5.07%[19] - Nominal GDP growth for Q4 surged to 7.43%, a significant improvement from the previous 4.04%[19] - The service sector showed strong support in Q4, with a growth rate of 5.8% and a notable rebound in the GDP deflator index[19] Financial Data and Policy - Financial data showed marginal improvement, with new RMB loans in December at CNY 990 billion, down by CNY 180 billion year-on-year[10] - Social financing (社融) increased by CNY 2.85 trillion in December, up by CNY 918.1 billion year-on-year[10] - The central bank emphasized maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate, implementing measures such as issuing CNY 60 billion in central bank bills offshore[10] Trade and International Relations - In December 2024, exports grew by 10.7% year-on-year, contributing to a record trade surplus of USD 992.155 billion for the year[22] - The potential for a phase of easing in China-U.S. relations was noted, with signals from both sides indicating possible diplomatic improvements[22] - The establishment of a "Foreign Tax Bureau" by the incoming U.S. administration may accelerate the implementation of tariffs on imports[22] Market Trends - In the past two weeks, small-cap stocks outperformed larger ones, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.54% and the STAR 50 Index by 2.56%[27] - The 10-year government bond yield rebounded, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards smaller market capitalization stocks[27] Risks - Geopolitical risks and the potential for delayed policy implementation could hinder economic recovery and investment growth[32] - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. inflation and interest rate policies may impact market dynamics and exchange rate stability[11]