东海证券：晨会纪要-20250121

Key Insights - The Q4 GDP growth rate exceeded expectations, reflecting the effectiveness of a series of policy measures implemented since September 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% compared to the previous value of 4.6% [7][9][20] - The nominal GDP growth rate showed significant improvement, rising to 7.43% in Q4, the highest since Q1 2022, while the GDP deflator index turned positive after six consecutive quarters of negative growth [9][20] - The third industry showed a notable rebound, with a growth rate of 5.8% in Q4, contributing significantly to overall economic performance [10][20] Economic Data Summary - In December 2024, retail sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year, up from 3.0% in the previous month, while fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.2% [7][8] - The industrial added value for December increased by 6.2% year-on-year, marking an eight-month high, driven by export demand and supportive policies [11][20] - The real estate sector showed mixed signals, with a slight increase in sales area by 0.3% in December, but a significant year-on-year decline of 12.9% for the entire year [14][20] Policy and Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the GDP growth target for 2025 will remain around 5%, emphasizing the need for sustained and intensified policy support to boost domestic demand [8][20] - The trade surplus reached a record high of $992.155 billion in 2024, with December exports growing by 10.7% year-on-year, indicating resilience in external demand despite potential tariff pressures from the new U.S. administration [21][20] - The A-share market has shown a preference for small-cap stocks recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.95% over the past ten trading days [22][36]