山西证券：研究早观点-20250121

Group 1: Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,244.38, up by 0.08% [4] - The ChiNext Index experienced a notable increase, closing at 2,104.73, up by 1.81% [4] Group 2: New Stock Market Activity - The new stock market activity has increased, with 32 stocks recording positive gains, representing 69.57% of new listings in the past six months [8] - The first-day listing gain for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's SiKang Technology was 213.81%, with an opening valuation of 58.47 times earnings [8] - The ChiNext Board's HuiTong Technology saw a first-day gain of 366.95%, with an opening valuation of 65.85 times earnings [8] Group 3: Economic Data Insights - The GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 5.0%, with a "U" shaped recovery pattern observed throughout the year [9] - Consumer spending remains a key driver of economic growth, although overall price declines indicate supply-demand imbalances [9] - The fourth quarter saw a slight recovery in the GDP deflator index, but it remains significantly lower than the 2016-2019 average [9] Group 4: AI Chip Industry Developments - The U.S. government has implemented new export controls on advanced AI chips, which may accelerate the domestic AI chip market in China [13][15] - The new regulations create a demand market for domestic AI chips, with leading manufacturers like Huawei and Cambricon expected to benefit [15] - The release of the "Artificial Intelligence Diffusion Framework" is anticipated to enhance the domestic AI chip procurement ratio [15] Group 5: Agriculture Sector Insights - The livestock farming sector is expected to see improved performance in 2024, with a focus on pig farming profitability [16] - Recent data indicates fluctuations in pig prices, with an average price of 22.85 yuan/kg, reflecting a 1.02% increase week-on-week [16] - The overall financial situation in the livestock sector is under pressure, necessitating a recovery cycle to restore balance sheets [16][38] Group 6: Data Annotation Industry Growth - The newly released national policy aims to significantly enhance the data annotation industry, targeting a compound annual growth rate of over 20% by 2027 [20] - The policy emphasizes the need for high-quality data to support the domestic AI industry, addressing the shortage of quality Chinese language data [20] - The fragmented nature of the data annotation market is expected to consolidate, leading to the emergence of industry leaders [20] Group 7: Coal Industry Overview - The metallurgical coal market is stabilizing, with prices supported by improved demand expectations from downstream industries [22][23] - The overall coal market is experiencing weak supply and demand dynamics, with prices expected to remain stable in the near term [25][26] - The coal sector is projected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on high-dividend stocks [29]