新消费行业点评报告：12月社零同比增长3.7%，24年消费温和复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the consumer discretionary sector [7][20]. Core Insights - The consumer discretionary sector is experiencing a moderate recovery in consumption, with retail sales growth driven by dining out and online shopping outperforming physical stores [3][4]. - In December 2024, the total retail sales reached 4.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, surpassing the consensus expectation of 3.49% [4]. - The overall retail sales for 2024 amounted to 48.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year growth [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sales Performance - For the entire year of 2024, retail sales of goods totaled 43.22 trillion yuan, growing by 3.2%, while dining revenue reached 5.57 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.3% [3]. - Online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 13.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [3]. Consumer Behavior Trends - Essential consumption categories outperformed discretionary ones, with significant contributions from policies encouraging the replacement of old appliances [5]. - The report highlights that essential goods such as grain, oil, and food saw year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 2.1%, and 5.7%, respectively, while discretionary categories like cosmetics and jewelry experienced declines [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the old-for-new policy, such as home appliances and furniture [6]. - It also emphasizes the rise of emotional consumption, recommending attention to sectors like pet products, cultural tourism, and trendy consumer goods [6].