基础化工行业周报：出口压制预期缓和有望带动轮胎估值修复，继续关注化工核心资产及新材料成长

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is currently at a price and margin bottom, with leading companies showing strong safety margins in valuations. The industry is expected to maintain market share growth during the current expansion cycle due to integrated supply chains and cost advantages [3][4] - The demand for new materials is expected to accelerate as domestic replacements deepen, particularly in OLED and semiconductor materials, driven by the recent release of new smartphone models [3] - The tire industry is anticipated to recover in valuation as uncertainties surrounding tariffs are alleviated, with leading companies positioned to benefit [3] Summary by Sections Long-term Investment Recommendations - Value Category: Leading companies with performance safety margins are highlighted, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Huafeng Chemical [3] - Growth Category: New material companies are expected to show significant valuation and performance elasticity, with key recommendations including Xinjubang and Ruiyang Technology [3] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Recent price increases in TDI and other chemical products indicate a recovery phase, with TDI prices in East China rising to 13,700 RMB/ton, a 6.6% increase [9] - Urea prices have also seen an uptick due to increased agricultural demand ahead of the Spring Festival, with prices reaching 1,600 RMB/ton, a 1.3% increase [9] - The international oil price has shown upward movement, with WTI futures settling at 77.88 USD/barrel, reflecting a 1.7% increase [10] Policy and Economic Impact - Recent monetary policy adjustments, including potential interest rate cuts, are expected to positively influence the chemical sector, particularly in real estate-related chemical products [4] - The supply constraints in refrigerants due to policy measures are likely to sustain long-term price stability in that segment [4] Key Product Price Tracking - The China Chemical Price Index (CCPI) increased by 1.0% to 4,368 as of January 17, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in chemical prices [13] - The price of caustic soda in North China rose by 7.4% to 870 RMB/ton, driven by supply reductions and demand from the aluminum sector [9]