有色金属行业周报：宏观利好推动金属价格持续回升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is positively influencing metal prices, with aluminum prices rising and the profitability of electrolytic aluminum continuing to recover [1] - Copper prices are strengthening, driven by inflation expectations and supportive fiscal policies, with a focus on the potential impact of upcoming U.S. policies under President Trump [2] - Gold prices have rebounded to $2,700 per ounce, supported by lower-than-expected U.S. core CPI and expectations of a single rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [3] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased slightly, with supply constraints expected to persist despite high market demand [4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The non-ferrous metal sector rose by 4.47%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.15 percentage points [16] 2. Industrial Metal Fundamentals Tracking Aluminum - Aluminum prices are on the rise, with electrolytic aluminum profitability recovering due to stable production and rising waste aluminum prices [1] - The average price of A00 aluminum ingots has increased, while the inventory levels across major exchanges have decreased [26][28] Copper - Copper prices have shown a significant increase, with the SHFE copper price at 76,540 CNY per ton, up by 1.69% [22] - The market anticipates limited downside for copper prices due to ongoing supply constraints and positive macroeconomic signals [2] Zinc - Zinc prices have slightly decreased, with the SMM zinc price showing a downward trend [55] - The processing fees for imported zinc concentrate have increased, while domestic processing fees remain stable [57] 3. Precious Metal Fundamentals Tracking Gold - Gold prices have returned to $2,700 per ounce, driven by market expectations of monetary easing and inflation concerns [3] - Central banks have continued to increase their gold holdings, further supporting gold prices [3] 4. Energy Metals and Rare Earth Fundamentals Tracking Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate has increased to 77,900 CNY per ton, reflecting a slight month-on-month rise [4] - Despite high demand, the lithium market is expected to face pressure in the medium term due to inventory levels and production adjustments [4]