CHINA OVERSEAS(00688) 兴证国际证券·2025-01-21 06:28Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a slight increase in contract sales amounting to 310.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.3%. The average contract sales price also increased by 16.6% to 27,048 yuan per square meter, primarily due to the launch of high-end improvement projects in core locations of first- and second-tier cities [4][5] - The company focuses on land acquisition in first- and second-tier cities, with a total land expenditure of 80.6 billion yuan in 2024, of which the equity land expenditure was 69.6 billion yuan, maintaining an equity ratio of 86%. The average floor price for land acquisition reached a five-year high of 19,049 yuan per square meter [4][8] - The land acquisition intensity for 2024 was 26%, showing a trend of being lower at the beginning of the year and higher towards the end. In January 2025, the company accelerated its replenishment pace by acquiring projects in Shenzhen and Beijing for 3.065 billion yuan and 4.008 billion yuan, respectively [10] Financial Summary - The total revenue for the company is projected to be 192.2 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, followed by a slight increase to 193.5 billion yuan in 2025. The core net profit is expected to drop to 16.8 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 29.0%, before recovering to 18.8 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 12.1% [4][15] - The gross profit margin is expected to decrease to 17.0% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 18.0% by 2026. The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 4.4% in 2024, stabilizing at 4.8% in the following years [4][15]