海外札记：就职日后的市场猜想：政策预期观察窗口1-2-3

Market Performance - From January 6 to January 17, 2025, natural gas and crude oil prices surged due to weather and sanctions, with aluminum and copper rising by 7.5% and 3.4% respectively[5] - Global stock markets showed a slight rebound, with major asset classes exhibiting typical reflation trading characteristics, while the Asia-Pacific market lagged behind[5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. December CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the core CPI decreased slightly to 3.2%[12] - The dollar index remained above 108, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was above 4.6%, indicating market expectations of only 1-2 rate cuts in 2025[13] Policy Outlook - The market is closely watching Trump's inauguration on January 21, 2025, as it may signal a shift in trading patterns, potentially leading to a "sell on news" scenario[16] - The first day of Trump's presidency is expected to see immediate policy actions via executive orders, particularly regarding tariffs, which could influence market positioning[19] Market Trends - The analysis suggests that the first few weeks post-inauguration will be critical for market direction, with key economic indicators and policy signals expected to emerge[19] - A potential turning point for interest rates is anticipated in January, as the tightening financial conditions begin to exert pressure on economic data[20] Risks - Economic uncertainty remains a significant risk, particularly if employment and consumption data deteriorate, which could lead to a recession[26] - The unpredictability of Trump's policy decisions and geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could further impact market sentiment and commodity prices[28]