电池及储能行业周报：以旧换新效果显著，储能景气度持续

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights positive trends and suggests关注 (focus) on specific companies within the battery and energy storage sectors [5][14][19]. Core Insights - The battery sector is experiencing significant growth, with a projected 2025 sales volume of 15 million new energy vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of over 20% [4][12]. - The energy storage market is also expanding, with new installations expected to reach 43.7 GW/109.8 GWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 103%/136% [6][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support in sustaining market growth and stability in pricing across various segments of the battery supply chain [4][6][16]. Summary by Sections Battery Sector - The domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.2866 million units in December 2024, a 35.5% year-on-year increase, with over 680,000 vehicles replaced under the old-for-new policy [4][12]. - Supply-side adjustments are stabilizing prices, with lithium carbonate prices fluctuating and remaining under pressure due to supply-demand dynamics [13][25]. - Key companies to watch include 宁德时代 (CATL), which is expected to ship 480 GWh in 2024 with a profit of approximately 50.5 billion yuan [5][14]. Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage bidding market saw a total scale of 2.30 GW/15.47 GWh for new projects, with a decline in average bidding prices [6][15]. - By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage in China is projected to exceed 78.3 GW/184.2 GWh, surpassing pumped storage for the first time [6][16]. - The report highlights 上能电气 (Sungrow) for its comprehensive energy storage business model and market leadership in inverter shipments [19][7]. Market Performance - The battery sector index rose by 2.97% in the week of January 13-19, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.83 percentage points [21][22]. - Major inflows were observed in stocks like 科达利 (Keda Li) and 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power), while significant outflows were noted for 宁德时代 (CATL) and 新宙邦 (New Zobon) [21][23].