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2025年光伏年度策略报告：底部夯实，拐点已至，静待春暖花开
Huafu Securities·2025-01-21 07:30

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side turning point has been reached, and global demand growth remains resilient. Supply-side reforms are expected to continue throughout 2025, helping the industry overcome the oversupply dilemma. Global new photovoltaic installations are projected to reach 490GW in 2024 and 560GW in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14% [3][4][9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Supply: The consensus on self-discipline in the industry has formed, indicating that the supply-side turning point has been reached. The industry is expected to undergo significant reforms throughout 2025 [6][4] - Demand: Global new installations are expected to remain resilient, with emerging markets maintaining high growth rates. In China, new installations are projected to be stable despite a high base. The U.S. market may face uncertainties due to policy changes with the new government, while Europe is expected to see supported demand due to a declining interest rate cycle [4][9][23] Main Chain - Price turning points are approaching, and new technologies are expected to contribute excess returns. The industry has reached a consensus on production cuts, leading to a significant reduction in polysilicon production. The price recovery for silicon wafers and batteries is anticipated as self-discipline continues [3][4][9] Auxiliary Materials - The segments with volume growth or price increases are expected to exhibit beta characteristics, while breakthroughs in new technologies will showcase alpha potential. The global demand for inverters is expected to grow significantly, particularly in emerging markets [3][4][9] Investment Recommendations - Focus on battery segments with the lowest degree of oversupply and price elasticity, such as JunDa Co. and Aisuo Co. - Pay attention to polysilicon, silicon wafer, and glass segments benefiting from supply-side reforms, including Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly Energy, and Xinyi Solar [3][4][9]