Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 46.7% from the current price of HKD 9.20 [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The company has issued a positive earnings forecast, expecting revenue and profit growth of no less than 25% and 100% respectively for 2024. The second half of 2024 is projected to see revenue growth of at least 30% year-on-year [2][7]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been revised upward by 4%, driven by better-than-expected growth in key account (KA) business and last-mile delivery services. The report anticipates a decrease in unit prices due to improved delivery efficiency and changes in business structure [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 132 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 160%, with a corresponding net profit margin of 0.8% [2][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are RMB 15,498 million, RMB 19,350 million, and RMB 23,490 million respectively, with growth rates of 25.1%, 24.8%, and 21.4% [6][15]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 132 million, with a net profit margin of 0.8%. For 2025E, the adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 262 million, with a margin of 1.4% [6][15]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the gross profit for 2024E, estimated at RMB 1,022 million, with a gross margin of 6.6% [6][15]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of -0.97%, with a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 and a low of HKD 8.30. The market capitalization is approximately HKD 6,695.48 million [5][15]. - The report indicates that the company's stock performance is expected to align positively with the anticipated growth in the instant delivery industry, driven by strong demand [2][7].
顺丰同城：强需求下的即时配送行业，将带动2024年业绩稳健