Dada(DADA) 交银国际证券·2025-01-21 07:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for Dada Group (DADA US) with a target price of 1.33 [2][11]. Core Insights - The instant delivery industry is benefiting Dada's express delivery growth, with adjustments in the second delivery business continuing. The revenue forecast for Q4 2024 is expected to decline by 13% year-on-year, with Dada Express revenue adjusted up by 5% due to category expansion, refined operations, and improved fulfillment quality [2][6]. - The report anticipates a net loss of RMB 3.1 billion for 2024, corresponding to a loss rate of 13%. The strategy for JD's second delivery business remains focused on enhancing user perception and increasing order volume and repurchase rates, with revenue growth expected to take time [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2024 is RMB 9.621 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decline, while the adjusted net loss is projected at RMB 7.1 billion, with a loss rate of 7.4% [6][15]. - For 2025, the revenue is expected to increase to RMB 10.227 billion, representing a 6% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net loss of RMB 4.3 billion and a loss rate of 4.2% [6][15]. Revenue Breakdown - Dada Express revenue is projected to reach RMB 5.768 billion in 2024, up 1.4% from previous estimates, while JD's second delivery revenue is expected to decline to RMB 3.853 billion, down 2% from prior forecasts [5][6]. - The report outlines that Dada Express revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to be RMB 1.658 billion, showing a 39% year-on-year increase, while JD's second delivery revenue is forecasted to be RMB 732 million, down 53% year-on-year [7][15]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 9.92%, with a 52-week high of 1.04, indicating volatility in its market performance [4][6].