钢铁行业周报：底部渐明，节前钢价震荡反弹

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the steel industry [2][8] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is showing signs of recovery with prices expected to fluctuate positively in the short term due to improved market sentiment and seasonal demand [5][48] - The industry is anticipated to stabilize supported by steady demand from real estate and manufacturing sectors, while supply-side adjustments are expected to enhance industry concentration and product quality [8][55] Supply Side Summary - As of January 17, 2025, the total production of five major steel products reached 8.2406 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.93% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.65% [4][16] - The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.2448 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.05% and a year-on-year increase of 1.16% [4][16] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 84.28%, up 0.04 percentage points week-on-week and up 1.30 percentage points year-on-year [4][16] Demand Side Summary - The total consumption of five major steel products was 8.0491 million tons as of January 17, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.65% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.52% [20][21] - Daily transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 44,200 tons, showing a significant week-on-week decline of 43.03% and a year-on-year decline of 56.00% [20][21] - Monthly steel exports in December 2024 totaled 9.277 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 4.83% and a year-on-year increase of 25.87% [20][21] Inventory Summary - As of January 17, 2025, the total social inventory of five major steel products was 7.9667 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.98% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.80% [29][30] - The total factory inventory of five major steel products was 3.5483 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.30% [29][30] Cost Summary - As of January 17, 2025, the price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 786.2 RMB/wet ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.39% but a year-on-year decrease of 22.37% [44][47] - The comprehensive price index for scrap steel was 2,511.58 RMB/ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.00% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.79% [44][47] - The price index for low-sulfur coking coal was 1,406.32 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.32% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.30% [45][47] Price Summary - As of January 17, 2025, the Mysteel absolute price index for ordinary steel was 3,607.22 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.65% but a year-on-year decrease of 14.31% [48][49] - The Mysteel absolute price index for special steel was 9,484.43 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.62% [48][49] - The global steel price index was 193.4 points, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.10% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.98% [48][49]