“特朗普经济学”系列之九：特朗普会如何“去监管”？

Regulatory Evolution - Trump aims to "deregulate" sectors like environmental energy and cryptocurrency, following a historical trend of Republican presidents favoring deregulation[2] - The last significant deregulation occurred during Reagan's presidency, which saw a reduction in regulatory pages published in the Federal Register by approximately 74%[21] - Trump's first term featured a requirement for agencies to repeal two regulations for every new one introduced, with the most deregulation occurring in the environmental sector[22] Impact of Deregulation - Deregulation under Trump led to a reduction in regulatory costs by approximately $1.56 billion annually, totaling around$6.23 billion over his first term[34] - Bank profitability improved post-deregulation, with the average Return on Assets (ROA) rising from 1% to 1.3% after the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act (EGRRCPA) was enacted[35] - However, the relaxation of regulations has also hidden systemic risks, as indicated by the rising Cleveland Fed Systemic Risk Index (SRI) since the EGRRCPA's implementation[38] Future Regulatory Plans - In his new term, Trump is expected to continue deregulation, particularly in environmental policies, while also targeting artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency sectors[41] - Financial regulations may see further relaxation, with potential appointments of pro-deregulation officials and possible consolidation of regulatory agencies[46] - The implementation of Basel III final rules may be stalled, increasing risks in the banking sector if capital restrictions are further loosened[52] Risks and Warnings - There are concerns that Trump's deregulation policies may not be as impactful as promised, with potential for financial crises if risks accumulate unchecked[60] - The U.S. economy may face unexpected downturns, particularly if consumer spending weakens or if the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates[61][62]