电子行业跟踪报告：LCD价格止跌回升，面板厂“按需生产”策略效果显现

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" with an expectation of a relative increase of over 10% compared to the market index in the next six months [30]. Core Insights - The price of TV panels is expected to stop declining and slightly increase in Q4 2024 and January 2025 due to the "old-for-new" policy and production adjustments by panel manufacturers [1][10]. - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted demand, particularly for large-screen TVs, with the market share of 85"+ TVs increasing from 5% to 20% from January 2023 to November 2024 [14][20]. - Panel manufacturers are maintaining an operating rate of over 80% in Q4 2024, indicating a stable supply environment [3][24]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In Q4 2024, TV panel prices are stabilizing after a decline, with specific increases noted for 65-inch panels in January 2025 [10][12]. - The average price for 65-inch panels is projected to be $174, reflecting a 1.2% increase from the previous month [12]. Demand Recovery - The "old-for-new" policy has led to a remarkable recovery in the domestic TV market, with retail sales growth exceeding 50% in several regions [14][15]. - The demand for large-screen TVs has surged, with significant increases in sales volume and market share for 85"+ TVs [14][20]. Supply Dynamics - The overall operating rate of major panel manufacturers is projected to be between 80% and 85% in Q4 2024, indicating effective supply management [3][24]. - Taiwanese panel manufacturers have reported mixed revenue results for December 2024, with some companies experiencing growth while others faced declines [24][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the LCD panel industry, as they are expected to benefit from stable demand and improved profitability due to their market share and production capabilities [4][26].