Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 62.84, based on a FY25 PE of 25X [3]. Core Views - The K12 education training policy is improving, with a significant reduction in offline training institutions, leading to a shift from academic tutoring to quality education training. The high school student population is expected to grow, and the declining college admission rates will drive the recovery of the high school academic training market [2]. - The company's brand strength remains robust, with revenue and capacity recovering to industry-leading levels. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of profit margins as capacity increases [2]. - Future growth drivers include strong demand for quality training and learning devices, recovery in overseas study services, and potential growth in cultural tourism and e-commerce businesses [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the education sector for 31 years, evolving from providing exam preparation for students studying abroad to a comprehensive education group covering various services including K12 training, overseas study services, vocational education, and online education [1][15]. K12 Education - The K12 education sector is experiencing favorable policies and effective supply clearing, with a 96.7% reduction in offline academic training institutions by January 2025. The demand for quality training is expected to grow as the market shifts from academic tutoring [2][36]. - The company is well-positioned to capture the growing demand for quality education and learning devices, with a significant increase in the number of students participating in quality education programs [2][45]. Overseas Study Services - The demand for overseas study services is recovering, with the market expected to stabilize as the supply of study institutions improves. The company holds a leading position in this sector [2][3]. Other Businesses - The cultural tourism business is anticipated to become a new growth curve, while the e-commerce segment is expected to recover from short-term challenges and return to reasonable growth in the medium to long term [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Non-GAAP net profits of USD 528 million, USD 692 million, and USD 887 million for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 44.5%, 31.1%, and 28.2% [3][6].
新东方-S：公司深度研究：深耕行业三十载，教育龙头地位稳固