商贸零售行业：2024年社零平稳增长，政策刺激品类持续高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" outlook for the retail industry, indicating a favorable performance relative to market benchmarks over the next 6 months [6][11]. Core Insights - The total retail sales in 2024 are projected to grow steadily, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, reflecting a positive overall trend [1][4]. - Essential consumption categories are showing stable growth, while optional categories exhibit mixed performance, with some segments experiencing negative growth [2][12]. - Policy stimuli are expected to enhance consumer spending, particularly in categories like home appliances and communication devices, which have shown significant year-on-year growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In December 2024, total retail sales are expected to grow by 3.7% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales increasing by 4.2% [1]. - The overall retail sales for 2024 are anticipated to show a steady growth pattern, with a notable acceleration in Q4, reaching a year-on-year growth of 3.82% [1][4]. Consumption Types - Essential consumption categories such as food, beverages, and daily necessities are projected to grow by 9.9%, 2.1%, and 3% respectively, indicating robust performance [2]. - Optional consumption categories are experiencing varied results, with some segments like cosmetics and jewelry showing slight declines, while home appliances and sports equipment are expected to grow around 10% [2][3]. Retail Formats - Online retail is outperforming offline channels, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% in total online retail sales, and physical goods online retail sales increasing by 6.5% [4][12]. - Among offline channels, convenience stores and specialty shops are showing positive growth, while department stores and brand boutiques are experiencing declines [4][12]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors that are in the early stages of development and align with economic trends, as well as industries that will benefit from policy support [4][14]. - The emphasis is on identifying companies that can leverage high cost-performance ratios to meet consumer demand shifts [14].