快递12月数据点评：国补带动需求增长，今年前三周件量大超预期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the next 3-6 months [4]. Core Insights - The demand for express delivery services has been significantly boosted by national subsidies, leading to a substantial increase in package volume, which exceeded expectations in December and the first three weeks of the new year [2][10]. - The express delivery business volume in December reached 17.8 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with a notable recovery from November's growth rate of 14.9% [12][19]. - The average price per package in December decreased by 13.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing price competition in the industry [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. December Overview - The express delivery business volume in December was 178.0 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 22.3% [12][19]. - The volume of same-city packages grew by 5.8%, while intercity packages increased by 23.8% [19][20]. - The increase in package volume was attributed to the expansion of national subsidies, with 14 provinces implementing mobile phone subsidy policies ranging from 10% to 15% [2][25]. 2. Package Volume - The package volume for the first three weeks of the new year was significantly higher than expected, with weekly volumes of 39.47 billion, 43.55 billion, and 46.19 billion pieces, representing year-on-year growth rates of 42.4%, 49.9%, and 46.6% respectively [14][18]. - The package volume during these weeks surpassed the peak volume recorded during last year's Double Eleven shopping festival [14][18]. 3. Revenue per Package - The average revenue per package in December decreased by 13.6% year-on-year, with major companies like Shentong and Yunda experiencing revenue declines of 7.3% and 9.4% respectively [32][36]. - The ongoing price war in the industry has kept package revenues at a low level, with no signs of companies retreating from competitive pricing [38][39]. 4. Market Share and Competitive Landscape - The market shares of Shentong and Yunda increased by 0.9 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points respectively, while SF Express and Yunda saw slight declines [34][39]. - The industry concentration ratio (CR8) remained stable compared to the previous month but increased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating faster growth among leading companies [41][42]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with superior service quality, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, as the industry faces ongoing price competition [45].