TongQingLou Catering (605108) 长江证券·2025-01-21 11:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant decline in net profit for 2024, estimated between 64.06 million to 92.53 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 78.93% to 69.56%. The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains is projected to be between 54.34 million to 78.49 million yuan, also reflecting a decline of 78.56% to 69.03% [3][4]. - The company is transitioning from a rapid expansion phase, which has led to increased costs and pressure on short-term performance. However, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing store expansions and product innovations in the food business, which are expected to drive future growth [3][4]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 79 million, 280 million, and 381 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 77, 22, and 16 times [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2023 was 2.401 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 2.582 billion yuan in 2024. The operating costs are expected to rise from 1.762 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.072 billion yuan in 2024, leading to a decrease in gross profit margin from 27% to 20% [13]. - The company anticipates significant capital expenditures in 2024, including the opening of 8 new large-scale stores, which will incur substantial startup costs and lead to initial losses [3][4]. Market Positioning - The company leverages its restaurant and hotel brands, such as Tongqinglou and Fumao, to cater to social dining and accommodation experiences, aligning with consumer preferences for value and quality [3][4]. - The report highlights the company's strategy of maintaining a core positioning of "delicious yet affordable," which resonates with cost-conscious consumers [3][4].