东兴证券：东兴晨报-20250121

Group 1: Retail Industry Overview - The retail sector is expected to see stable growth in 2024, with a projected year-on-year increase of 3.5% in total retail sales [2] - In December 2024, total retail sales increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with non-automotive consumer goods retail sales growing by 4.2% [2] - The first quarter of 2024 is anticipated to show a high growth rate of 5.5% due to a low base effect from the previous year [2] Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - Essential consumption remains steady, while discretionary categories show mixed performance [3] - Food, beverages, and daily necessities saw sales growth of 9.9%, 2.1%, and 3% respectively, indicating robust essential consumption [3] - Discretionary items like cosmetics and jewelry experienced slight declines, while home appliances and sports goods saw growth rates around 10% [4] Group 3: E-commerce vs. Traditional Retail - Online retail sales grew by 7.2% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales increasing by 6.5%, accounting for 26.8% of total retail sales [5] - Offline retail channels showed varied performance, with convenience stores and specialty shops growing by 4.7% and 4.2% respectively, while department stores faced declines [5] Group 4: Logistics and Delivery Sector - In December 2024, the express delivery sector handled 17.8 billion packages, marking a 22.3% year-on-year increase [9] - The growth in delivery volume is attributed to expanded government subsidies and increased demand during the holiday season [9] - Major express companies like Shentong and Yunda outperformed the industry average in growth rates, while SF Express saw a significant increase due to e-commerce promotions [10] Group 5: Agricultural Sector Insights - In December 2024, the average price of live pigs was 16.64 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 10.91% for the entire year [15] - The supply of pigs is expected to remain sufficient, with slaughter rates increasing by 6.65 percentage points to 36.33% in December [15] - The industry anticipates a stable price range for pigs in 2025, with leading companies expected to benefit from cost advantages [16] Group 6: Real Estate Market Analysis - New home sales in December 2024 showed a year-on-year increase in sales amount, with a sales area decline narrowing [24] - The cumulative sales area for 2024 was down 12.9%, while the sales amount decreased by 17.1% [24] - The government is expected to continue implementing supportive policies to stabilize the real estate market [26]