Jiangshan Oupai(603208) 天风证券·2025-01-22 00:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangshan Oupai is "Accumulate" with a downward adjustment [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to face a revenue decline of approximately 20% in 2024, with projected revenue around 3 billion yuan [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease by 69-79%, ranging from 0.8 to 1.2 billion yuan [1]. - The company has been experiencing a shift in revenue structure and a decrease in gross margin due to market downturns and longer accounts receivable aging [1]. - The market is undergoing consolidation, with market share increasingly concentrating among leading companies, enhancing their competitive advantages [2]. - Jiangshan Oupai has improved its market share in the wooden door segment from 0.67% in 2017 to 2.42% in 2023 [2]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 3.03 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -19% [5]. - EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 349.66 million yuan, with a significant decrease from previous years [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 111.86 million yuan, reflecting a 71.31% decline [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 0.63 yuan, down from previous estimates [4][5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2024 is projected at 28.95x [5]. Product and Delivery Advantages - Jiangshan Oupai has a professional design team that focuses on consumer preferences and market trends to develop aesthetically pleasing and practical products [3]. - The company emphasizes information technology throughout its operations, enhancing order management and delivery efficiency [3]. - There is a strategic push towards expanding overseas markets, with a focus on various door products [3].