2025年美国总统就职演说点评：美国放在首位，开启常识革命

Group 1: Key Policy Focus - Trump's inauguration speech emphasizes "America First" and initiates a "common sense revolution" with a series of historical executive orders[6] - Key policy areas include illegal immigration, inflation (traditional energy, manufacturing, ending the Green New Deal), foreign trade (establishing an external tax bureau), government efficiency, social justice, military, and foreign expansion[6] Group 2: Economic Implications - Illegal immigration and inflation are prioritized, indicating a lower tolerance in American society for these issues[7] - Trump attributes inflation to large-scale overspending and energy prices, proposing to develop traditional energy sources and revive manufacturing to lower prices[7] - The U.S. has become one of the top three global crude oil exporters, suggesting a strong correlation between inflation and oil prices[8] Group 3: Manufacturing and Trade - Details on revitalizing manufacturing are limited, with a focus likely on high-margin sectors like chips, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals[8] - The speech lacks specific mentions of domestic tax cuts, but a new tax reform is expected to be implemented faster than the previous one[8] - Trade reforms will involve tariffs and taxes to protect American workers, with a potential 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico due to immigration and drug issues[11] Group 4: Market Outlook - U.S. inflation pressure is expected to be slightly lower than at the end of the previous year, but still significant[10] - The stock market outlook remains neutral to slightly positive, with a potential bubble similar to the late 1990s, but not yet at the levels seen in 2000[13] - Global economic fundamentals will primarily influence oil prices, with risks including European economic recession and rising trade tensions[14]