锂产业链月度追踪（202412）：2024年碳酸锂库存累积，价格下降22.6%

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the lithium industry [6] Core Views - The lithium market is expected to experience a seasonal increase in demand post-Spring Festival, with lithium prices projected to rise to approximately 95,000 yuan per ton [5][92] - Long-term projections indicate a balanced supply-demand scenario by 2025, with lithium prices fluctuating between 70,000 to 90,000 yuan [5][92] Supply Side Summary - In December 2024, lithium ore imports reached 460,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [3][10] - The total lithium ore imports for 2024 are projected to be 5.247 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% [3][11] - The supply of lithium carbonate in December was 100,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 62.1% [3][19] - The total supply of lithium salts for 2024 is expected to be 1.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 44.4% [31][82] Demand Side Summary - In December 2024, the consumption of lithium carbonate was 100,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 62.1% [3][19] - The total demand for lithium salts in 2024 is projected to be 974,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 41.6% [63][82] - The demand for lithium in the power battery sector is expected to increase by 45.6% year-on-year in 2024 [64][73] - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 are projected to increase by 34.8% and 36.1% year-on-year, respectively [74] Price Trends - As of December 31, 2024, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,050 yuan per ton, down 22.6% from the beginning of the year [87] - The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 75,080 yuan per ton, down 19.5% year-on-year [87]