越南区域投资：挑战与机遇（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or region [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Vietnam aims to achieve upper middle-income status by 2030 and high-income status by 2045, requiring gross capital investments to account for 32-35% of GDP, with government investment at 7.3% of GDP annually to support infrastructure development [14] - Public investment in Vietnam has declined from 8% of GDP in 2011 to 6% in 2022, with chronic under-execution of investment budgets and significant delays in project implementation [16] - The central government's share of total government investment has decreased from 40% to 20% over the past seven years, leading to over-investment by provinces in low-value projects and stranded assets [16] - Vietnam's infrastructure quality lags behind regional peers, with road transport costs being the highest in the region, which could impact its attractiveness as an FDI destination [20][22] Public Investment Trends - Vietnam's infrastructure quality ranks 77th globally, behind countries like China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with expressway density being one of the lowest in the region [20][22] - To sustain economic growth, Vietnam needs to invest 7-7.3% of GDP in infrastructure annually, aligning with global experience where fast-growing countries invest at least 7% of GDP in public investment [25] - Public investment as a share of GDP has declined from 8% in 2011 to 6% in 2022, with public capital stock per capita and per worker below upper middle-income and high-income countries [28] Inefficiencies in PIM and IGF Systems - The PIM system in Vietnam suffers from allocative inefficiencies, with provinces over-investing in low-value projects like industrial parks and provincial ports, leading to environmental degradation and economic waste [38][39] - Vietnam has 47 seaports, but 95% of cargo goes through three central government-operated ports, indicating uneconomic investments by provinces [40] - Overinvestment in small airports has resulted in low passenger volumes, with only 6 out of 22 airports experiencing growth, while most are loss-making [46] Systemic Problems in Subnational PIM and IGF Systems - Vietnam's fiscal decentralization has led to a fragmented intergovernmental system, with subnational governments accounting for 60% of total government expenditures, significantly higher than the international average [65] - The State Budget Law and Public Investment Law lack mechanisms for vertical and horizontal coordination, leading to underinvestment in national and regional infrastructure [40][41] - The lack of effective incentive and enforcement mechanisms at the regional level has resulted in a race-to-the-bottom competition among provinces, leading to inefficient public investments [44][45] Recommendations and Next Steps - The report recommends rebalancing infrastructure investment from provincial to central levels, addressing legal loopholes, and establishing robust monitoring mechanisms for capital budget resources [17] - It suggests institutionalizing tools for vertical and horizontal coordination, such as co-financing arrangements and regional Public Investment Programs, to enhance regional investment efficiency [96] - The report also emphasizes the need for a comprehensive review of expenditure responsibilities and the alignment of MTIPs with national and regional spatial development masterplans [93]