2024年12月经济数据点评：工业生产加快，需求稳中向好

Economic Performance - In December, industrial production accelerated with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, up from 5.4% in November[9] - The GDP growth for Q4 2024 was 5.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from Q3[5] - Fixed asset investment for 2024 was 514,374 billion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year[9] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment is rebounding, supported by a 1 trillion yuan issuance of long-term bonds for "two new" projects[14] - Manufacturing investment slightly decreased, while overall investment remains stable[5] - Real estate investment in 2024 was 100,280 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year, indicating a need for stabilization[15] Consumer Behavior - Social retail sales in December reached 45,172 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%[16] - Consumption in sectors like textiles, jewelry, and communication equipment showed improvement, while furniture and automotive sales declined[19] - The rebound in consumption is primarily driven by retail sales, despite a slowdown in dining consumption growth[21] Policy Outlook - The government plans to implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies in 2025 to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market[5] - Continued support for infrastructure projects is expected to enhance economic recovery and investment stability[25] Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[26]