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2024年四季度及12月宏观数据点评：2024年经济增长目标顺利完成
Yintai Securities·2025-01-22 03:37

Economic Growth - In 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.0%, successfully meeting the annual target of around 5%[2] - The GDP growth in Q4 2024 was 5.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 5.1%[5] - The nominal GDP growth for 2024 was 4.2%, with the GDP deflator index remaining in negative territory for seven consecutive quarters[5] Industrial Production - In December 2024, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.8 percentage points from November[6] - Exports supported industrial production, with December exports growing by 10.7% in USD terms, significantly better than expected[7] - The production and sales rate reached 98.7%, the highest for the year, with 34 out of 41 major industries showing year-on-year growth in December[7] Consumer Spending - In December 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of 3.5%[8] - The retail sales for goods in December rose by 3.9%, while the annual growth was 3.2%[8] - The consumption upgrade policy and the upcoming Spring Festival provided support for related product categories[8] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.2% year-on-year in 2024, slightly below the market expectation of 3.4%[10] - Investment in manufacturing and broad infrastructure both increased by 9.2%, but showed a slight slowdown compared to the previous month[10] - Equipment and tool investment grew by 15.7%, contributing 67.6% to the overall investment growth[10] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment fell by 10.6% year-on-year in 2024, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous months[12] - New housing sales area decreased by 12.9% for the year, but showed signs of recovery in December with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[12] - The price index for new residential properties in 70 large and medium cities showed a reduced decline of -0.1% in December, indicating a stabilization in the market[12]