Fiscal Data - In April, the general public budget revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue rising by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9%, marking the first positive growth this year[2] - Government fund revenue grew by 8.1% year-on-year, also the first positive growth this year, while expenditure increased significantly by 16.8 percentage points to 44.7%[2] - Cumulative expenditure growth from January to April reached 4.6%, exceeding the annual target growth rate of 4.4%[2] International Relations - The U.S. aims to globally ban advanced computing chips from China, with the Chinese Ministry of Commerce condemning these measures as discriminatory[2] - China is closely monitoring the implementation of U.S. measures and will take resolute actions to protect its legitimate rights[2] Trade Agreements - China and ASEAN have completed negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, which includes nine new chapters covering digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity[3] - This agreement is expected to enhance regional economic integration and promote deep integration of production and supply chains[3] Market Overview - The total market capitalization of A-shares is 88.15 trillion CNY, with a year-to-date increase of 2.29 trillion CNY[15] - The average daily trading volume is 14,238.18 billion CNY, with a current PE ratio of 19.22x[15] - The latest financing balance is 18,007.43 billion CNY, indicating a stable financing environment[17] Sector Performance - The top three performing sectors are coal, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemicals[19] - The banking, non-ferrous metals, and coal sectors saw the highest net capital inflows on the latest trading day[21]

鑫新闻 研究所日报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 星期五 1.民营经济促进法施行在即，多部门将出配套措施紧抓落实。点评：在5月8日国新办举行的新闻发布会上，司法、全 国人大、国家发展改革委等部门相关人员共同介绍《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》有关情况和未来的配套落实举 措，涉及投资融资促进、科技创新、服务保障、权益保护等方面。日前表决通过的民营经济促进法将自今年5月20日 起施行，作为我国第一部专门关于民营经济发展的基础性法律，民营经济促进法积极回应民营企业关切，其将进一步 推动民营经济健康发展。 2.美国与英国达成贸易协议。点评：北京时间5月8日晚间，美国总统特朗普公布了与英国之间贸易协议的大致框架。 英国政府同意在进口美国食品和农业产品方面作出让步，以换取美方降低对英国汽车出口的关税，美国将对英国制造 的汽车关税降至10%，对钢材和铝材的关税降至零。谈判仍将继续，协议的细节将在接下来的几周内敲定。英美关税 谈判取得进展将降低全球贸易前景的不确定性，关注本周末中美贸易谈判的进展情况。 1.天津市数据局、市财政局联合印发了《天津市算力券实施方案（试行）》。点评：算力券是用于支持购买智算或超 算服务的政策工具和 ...

Economic Growth - In 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.0%, successfully meeting the annual target of around 5%[2] - The GDP growth in Q4 2024 was 5.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 5.1%[5] - The nominal GDP growth for 2024 was 4.2%, with the GDP deflator index remaining in negative territory for seven consecutive quarters[5] Industrial Production - In December 2024, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.8 percentage points from November[6] - Exports supported industrial production, with December exports growing by 10.7% in USD terms, significantly better than expected[7] - The production and sales rate reached 98.7%, the highest for the year, with 34 out of 41 major industries showing year-on-year growth in December[7] Consumer Spending - In December 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of 3.5%[8] - The retail sales for goods in December rose by 3.9%, while the annual growth was 3.2%[8] - The consumption upgrade policy and the upcoming Spring Festival provided support for related product categories[8] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.2% year-on-year in 2024, slightly below the market expectation of 3.4%[10] - Investment in manufacturing and broad infrastructure both increased by 9.2%, but showed a slight slowdown compared to the previous month[10] - Equipment and tool investment grew by 15.7%, contributing 67.6% to the overall investment growth[10] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment fell by 10.6% year-on-year in 2024, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous months[12] - New housing sales area decreased by 12.9% for the year, but showed signs of recovery in December with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[12] - The price index for new residential properties in 70 large and medium cities showed a reduced decline of -0.1% in December, indicating a stabilization in the market[12]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market experienced a rebound in late September after a decline earlier in the quarter, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 3300 points and the Shenzhen Component Index surpassing 10000 points by the end of September, reflecting a recovery of losses incurred earlier in the year [23][24][25] - The report highlights that the U.S. Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points on September 18 has created a favorable environment for a soft landing of the U.S. economy, which may influence global market conditions positively [27][30] - Domestic economic growth momentum is showing signs of weakening, with the report noting that while exports and manufacturing investments continue to support the economy, weak domestic demand and a struggling real estate market are exerting downward pressure [6][31][32] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the Politburo meeting on September 26 sent positive signals regarding macroeconomic policy, indicating a shift towards stabilizing growth and implementing supportive measures for the economy [10][43] - Various policies aimed at stabilizing growth have been introduced, including monetary policy adjustments and measures to support the real estate market, which are expected to enhance market confidence [44][47] - The report suggests that the A-share market may experience a cooling period after a rapid rise, with future performance likely dependent on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and improvements in the domestic economy [15][16][57] Group 3 - The report notes that A-share earnings have been fluctuating at low levels, with overall revenue under pressure due to weak domestic demand and low prices, although there has been slight improvement in profits driven by cost reductions and financial sector growth [9][39][41] - It highlights that the capital market support policies are being strengthened, with the central bank creating new monetary policy tools to support stock market development and encourage long-term capital inflows [12][54][56] - The report outlines investment strategies focusing on flexible asset allocation, emphasizing the importance of monitoring policy effectiveness and economic recovery signals in the medium term [17][18]