鑫新闻 研究所日报 2026 年 03 月 24 日 星期二 1. 央行：综合运用货币政策工具 保持流动性充裕。潘功胜在中国发展高层论坛 2026 年年会上表示，人民 银行将坚持支持性的货币政策立场，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场平稳运行创造良好的货币金 融环境；综合运用存款准备金率、政策利率、公开市场操作等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。 2. 国家对成品油价格采取临时调控措施，为 13 年来首次调控。国内成品油调价窗口 3 月 23 日 24 时开启， 根据现行价格机制计算，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别应上调 2205 元、2120 元，调控后实际上调 1160 元、 1115 元，折合成升价分别上调 0.87 元左右、0.95 元左右。 3.美伊谈判陷入罗生门。美国总统特朗普表示，美国与伊朗进行了"强有力"的对话，并已形成协议 要点，将暂停打击其能源设施5天。特朗普称，正就达成更广泛协议与伊朗磋商，美伊"可能在5天内 甚至更短时间内"达成协议。不过，伊朗方面多次否认同美国对话。伊朗外交部称，特朗普相关表态 旨在降低能源价格并为军事行动争取时间。 3.海外方面，亚太市场遭遇"黑色星期一"，韩国综合指数 ...

鑫新闻 研究所日报 2026 年 03 月 20 日 星期五 1. 央行部署今年重点工作，要求继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，综合运用存款准备金率、买卖国债、MLF、 逆回购等长中短期货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。引导和调控好利率水平，强化利率政策执行和监督。 持续推进金融支持融资平台债务风险化解工作。坚定维护股票、债券、外汇等金融市场平稳运行。 2. 今年 1-2 月，我国财政收入 4.42 万亿元，同比增长 0.7%。其中，税收收入 3.64 万亿元，增长 0.1%， 证券交易印花税增长 1.1 倍。财政支出靠前发力，达到 4.67 万亿元，同比增长 3.6%，增速明显高于财政收 入增速。 3.美国总统特朗普表示，对以色列袭击伊朗油气设施"毫不知情"，已告知以色列不要攻击伊朗境内 能源设施，美国将采取一切必要措施来维持油价稳定。美国财长贝森特称，可能在未来数日内解除对 "已在海上"的伊朗石油制裁，并再次释放战略石油储备。白宫称美国不会实施原油出口禁令。以色 列总理内塔尼亚胡表示，以方将"遵守"特朗普所提"暂停"后续空袭伊朗能源设施的要求。 4.汇率市场方面，美元指数收于99.18，下跌1.11%；离岸美元兑 ...

宏观点评 宏观研究 2026 年 3 月 17 日 多重因素支撑，国内经济开局良好 ——1-2 月宏观数据点评 事件：2026 年 3 月 16 日，国家统计局发布 1-2 月国内经济数据。1-2 月份 全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.3%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.8%，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长 1.8%，房地产开发投资同比 下降 11.1%。 核心观点： | | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研究专业创新 如意投资随心 1-2 月国内经济工业生产、消费、固定资产投资增速均较上年 12 月份改 善且普遍好于市场预期。1-2 月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.3%， 社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.8%，较上年 12 月分别加快 1.1、1.9 个 百分点，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长 1.8%，投资增速由负 转正。房地产开发投资延续低迷，但新房、二手房房价降幅收窄。 1-2 月经济数据的改善受多方面因素支撑，包括出口超预期高增、宏观政 策靠前发力、春节较晚以及"超长假期"效应等。国内经济迎来的良好 开局将有效减轻短期经济进一步放缓的压力，有利于提振各方对后期国 内经 ...

Economic Data - Fixed asset investment in China grew by 1.8% year-on-year in January-February, with a 5.2% increase excluding real estate investment, while real estate development investment fell by 11.1%[2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.3%, and the service production index rose by 5.2%[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.8%[2] Real Estate Market - In February, new home prices in 70 cities showed a narrowing decline, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing a 0.2% increase, while Shenzhen experienced a 0.3% decrease[2] - Second and third-tier cities saw home prices decline by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively[2] Financial Sector - New RMB loans reached 900 billion yuan in February, down by 110 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak credit demand in the real economy[9] - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 2.4 trillion yuan, slightly above expectations, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.2%[9] Trade Performance - Exports in January-February surged by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 7%[10] - Imports also rose by 19.8%, surpassing the anticipated 6%[10] Inflation and Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.3% year-on-year in February, a significant increase from January's 0.2%[11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrower decline of 0.9% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 1.4%[11] Stock Market Overview - The A-share market saw mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index leading gains, while the CSI 300 index saw a slight increase[3] - Market turnover was approximately 2.34 trillion yuan, down by about 774 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] Currency and Interest Rates - The US dollar index closed at 99.80, down 0.70% for the day[3] - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 6.8894, down 0.26%[3] - The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds rose to 1.833%, up by 1.79 basis points[3]

Economic and Policy Updates - The 14th National People's Congress concluded on March 12, approving key documents including the government work report and the 2026 national economic and social development plan[2]. - The central bank plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to create a favorable financial environment for sustained economic improvement[2]. Market Performance - On March 12, major A-share indices closed lower, with the CSI 300 down 0.36% and the ChiNext Index leading the decline with a drop of 1.24%[3]. - The market turnover was approximately 2.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 677 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3]. Sector Analysis - The coal sector showed strong performance, rising by 4.24%, while the defense industry led the declines with a drop of 2.33%[3]. - Other sectors such as public utilities and agriculture also performed positively, increasing by 1.89% and 1.32% respectively[3]. Global Market Trends - Major global indices experienced declines, with the Nasdaq down 1.78% and the S&P 500 falling by 1.52%[3]. - In Europe, the CAC 40 decreased by 0.71%, while the DAX and FTSE 100 fell by 0.21% and 0.47% respectively[3]. Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index rose by 0.48% to 99.74, while the offshore RMB against the dollar fell by 0.08% to 6.8821[4]. - The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 3 basis points to 1.807%[4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its "Overweight" stance on the Chinese stock market [11] Core Viewpoints - A-shares will continue to outperform H-shares until global geopolitical and AI disruption concerns subside due to their higher Sharpe ratio and lower global market beta [11] - China is less sensitive to oil price shocks than other emerging Asian market peers, but high oil prices may lead to a 20% decline in the fair value of the Chinese stock market [11] - The "Two Sessions" policy signals are in line with market expectations, and the fiscal policy will remain expansionary this year [12] - AI is the most concerned investment theme, and China's AI has potential economic benefits [13] - Driven by AI, "going global", and "anti-involution", corporate profit growth may accelerate to about 14% in 2026 [14] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Data - In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%; the trade surplus was 1.50349 trillion yuan [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped 0.38BP to 1.803%, and DR007 dropped 0.73BP to 1.440% [4] - The US dollar index closed at 98.94, up 0.23% slightly, and the offshore US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8813, down 0.09% [5] A-share Market - On March 10, the A-share market showed a general upward trend. The ChiNext Index led the gains with a rise of 3.04%, and small and medium-cap indexes such as CSI 2000 and STAR 50 were active. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.28%. The market turnover was 2.42 trillion yuan [3] - The communication and electronics sectors were strong, with increases of 4.32% and 3.41% respectively. The machinery and equipment, building materials, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors also had high increases. The energy and raw material sectors had large declines, with the petroleum and petrochemical sector dropping 5.14% and the coal sector dropping 3.11% [3] - The A-share total market value was 115.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.73 trillion yuan compared with the beginning of the year. The cumulative turnover this year was 111.56 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 272.0893 billion yuan [20] Global Market - Asia-Pacific and European markets generally rose. The South Korean Composite Index rose 5.35%, the Nikkei 225 Index rose 2.88%, and the German DAX and French CAC40 Indexes both rose more than 1.7%. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.17%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.96%. The US stock market was weak, with the Nasdaq Index rising slightly by 0.01%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index and S&P 500 Index falling 0.07% and 0.21% respectively [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of setting a solid foundation for the "14th Five-Year Plan" while outlining key tasks for 2026 and summarizing achievements from the previous year [2] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% to 5%, which is a slight adjustment from the previous year's target of "around 5%," reflecting a more pragmatic approach to economic growth [5] - The report indicates a commitment to high-quality development, suggesting that the adjusted growth target aligns with the objective of focusing on sustainable economic progress [5] Group 2 - The overall macroeconomic policy tone remains stable, with an emphasis on proactive measures, maintaining a consistent fiscal policy with a target deficit rate of "around 4%" and a record high in new government debt [7] - The report outlines specific measures to boost domestic demand, including a plan to increase income for urban and rural residents and a special bond issuance to support consumer spending [8][9] - Investment strategies are also highlighted, with a proposed central budget investment of 755 billion and additional funding for infrastructure projects to stabilize investment growth [8]

Market Overview - Year-to-date, stock ETFs have shown a net outflow of 187.3 billion yuan as of February 24, 2026[2] - The total return of the Wind All A-Share Index is 6.53% year-to-date, despite significant ETF outflows, indicating a shift in market sentiment[2] International Developments - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited China from February 25 to 26, accompanied by a high-level delegation of 30 representatives from the German business sector[3] - The U.S. Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, indicated ongoing investigations into China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement, suggesting potential tariff measures[3] Stock Market Performance - On February 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29%, with total trading volume reaching 24,625.48 billion yuan, an increase of 2,604.86 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.41%, and the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.54%[4] Bond Market Insights - The yield on the 10-year government bond is 1.8195%, with a change of +1.42 basis points[5] - The average rates for R001 and R007 in the interbank market were 1.4652% and 1.5869%, respectively[5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included steel (4.69%), non-ferrous metals (3.48%), and building materials (2.75%), while banking and media sectors saw declines of 0.46% and 1.15%, respectively[5]

Monetary Policy - The central bank will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation today, with 300 billion MLF maturing this month, marking the 12th consecutive month of increased operations, though the scale is smaller than last month's 700 billion[3] - The February LPR is set at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year loans, remaining unchanged for 9 months[3] - The capital market is stable, with short-term monetary policy in an observation phase, and the central bank is leaning towards using OMO to adjust market liquidity[3] Global Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. has officially begun imposing a 10% global tariff, with plans to increase it to 15%, affecting various industries including large batteries and industrial chemicals[3] - China is closely monitoring the situation and may adjust its countermeasures regarding tariffs on U.S. products, including fentanyl[3] Market Performance - On February 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.36%, with total trading volume reaching 22,020.62 billion, an increase of 2,193.82 billion from the previous trading day[4] - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.76%, S&P 500 up 0.77%, and Nasdaq up 1.04%[4] Bond and Interest Rates - The yield on the 10-year government bond is at 1.8053%, with a change of +0.92 BP[4] - The average rates for R001 and R007 are 1.4518% and 1.6102%, respectively[4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include petroleum and petrochemicals (+5.53%), building materials (+3.71%), and basic chemicals (+3.45%), while media, computers, and retail sectors saw declines[4]

Economic Policy and Agricultural Development - The central government's focus for 2026 includes four key tasks in the agricultural sector aimed at enhancing production capacity and quality, providing targeted assistance, promoting stable income growth for farmers, and advancing rural development[2] - The importance of developing new agricultural productivity is emphasized due to the return of migrant workers to rural areas, which can help utilize rural labor and improve income levels[2] - A pilot program for land extension will be implemented in 29 provinces, excluding Guizhou and Tibet, to support rural land management[2] Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan on February 4[3] - Current market liquidity is described as neutral and moderately loose, with seasonal tightening expected as the Spring Festival approaches[3] - There is potential for lowering existing mortgage rates to stimulate consumption, as pressures from exchange rates and bank net interest margins have eased[3] Stock Market Performance - On February 4, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%, with total trading volume at 24,809.71 billion yuan, down by 632.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index fell by 0.4%, and the STAR 50 Index decreased by 1.2%[4] - The overall A-share market saw a 0.45% increase, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.05%[4] Bond Market and Interest Rates - The yield on the 10-year government bond was reported at 1.8201%, with a change of +0.24 basis points[4] - Average interbank rates for R001 and R007 were 1.3962% and 1.5554%, respectively[4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included coal (7.58%), construction materials (3.48%), real estate (2.97%), and transportation (2.82%), while sectors like media and telecommunications saw declines of -3.12% and -2.73% respectively[4][25]