鑫新闻 研究所日报 2026 年 01 月 08 日 星期四 1. 截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美元，环比上升115亿美元，再创2015年12月以 来新高；黄金储备规模为7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第14个月增加。点评：我国外汇储 备规模创出2015年末以来的最高值，主要得益于我国贸易差额持续攀升。另外人民银行持有黄金数量 持续攀升，官方储备资产多元化趋势明显。从全球范围看，2022年以来全球央行总体加速购进黄金， 根据wind统计数据，2022年全球央行净购金量1080吨，2023年1050吨，2024年1089吨，系自有数据以 来的全球央行增持黄金最高的三年，此前最高年度为2018年净购金合计656吨，2025年全球央行购金量 环比降低至634吨，虽然环比下降明显，但对比历史数据仍然居于高位。作为央行储备资产之一，黄金 正在不断挤压美元份额。 2. 央行公告，1月8日将开展11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作。点评：1月8日有11000亿元3个月 期买断式逆回购到期，此次操作将实现等量对冲，也是该政策工具连续第三个月等量续作。央行月初 快速回收OMO存量，其规模降至 ...

鑫新闻 研究所日报 2026 年 01 月 06 日 星期二 1 1.央行方面，节后央行如期连续净回笼资金，5日当天开展7天质押式逆回购金额仅135亿元，利率1.4%， 当日净回笼头寸4688亿元。点评：节后资金价格回落，市场流动性总体充裕，交易所隔夜均价在 1.46%-1.48%之间，银行间1月4日开市，节后两个交易日资金价格波动较大，隔夜均价在1.26%-1.34% 波动，但比跨年前的1.45%显著降低，央行经过两天净回笼后，OMO存量已跌至6000以下，降至跨年行 情前的平均水平。 2.当地时间1月5日中午，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被美国强行控制后在纽约联邦法庭首次出庭，面对美国 司法部提出的四项指控，马杜罗表示"不认罪"。中国外交部发言人林剑表示，中方呼吁美方确保马 杜罗总统夫妇人身安全，立即释放马杜罗总统和夫人，停止颠覆委内瑞拉政权，通过对话谈判解决问 题。点评：当下美国选择用武力服务其自身经济利益，缓解其财政压力，古巴、哥伦比亚被美总统点 名威胁，格陵兰岛的争夺重新被提及，在国际局势动荡的同时，我国政治环境稳定、国防实力不断提 升、人民币对美元汇率长期预期乐观，可关注外资涌入情况及其在权益市场的占比。 ...

鑫新闻 2.财政部、税务总局发布公告，自2026年起，个人将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，增值税征收率 从此前的5%下调至3%，满两年及以上的免征增值税。2026年1月1日前，个人销售住房涉及的增值税尚 未申报缴纳的，符合公告规定的将按公告执行。点评：本次政策降低二手房交易成本，有利于提升二 手房交易活跃度，也有利于缓解部分持房者的资金压力，但也将导致市场供应量加大，对房价产生压 力，房地产行业的止跌回稳是个系统性工程，后续居民就业、增收等一系列配套措施可期。 1.当日上证指数收平，深圳成指涨幅0.49%，两市成交金额合计21423.26亿元，较前一交易日放量29.88 亿元。创业板指涨幅0.63%，科创50涨幅1.01%。 2.国际方面欧股与港股当日领涨，恒生科技、意大利富时MIB、恒生指数涨幅居前，分别为1.74%、1.14%、 0.86%，紧随其后为英国富时100、法国CAC40、德国DAX指数涨幅分别为0.75%、0.69%、0.57%，美国三 大股指、日韩、沙特股指当日领跌，沙特全指跌幅1.03%，其他指数跌幅均在0.5%以内。 3.中证10Y国债到期收益率1.8537%，变动-0.8BP，银行间R ...

鑫新闻 研究所日报 2025 年 12 月 26 日 星期五 1.外汇市场迎来标志性时刻。12月25日，离岸人民币对美元盘中升破"7"整数关口，为15个月来首 次，最高触及6.996。与此同时，在岸人民币对美元逼近"7"关口，最高触及7.0053，创15个月新高。 点评：中央经济工作会议提出2026年首要任务为扩大内需，其中一个核心举措为国民增收计划，十五 五规划中提到2035年我国人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，这些都和汇率息息相关，人民币国际化推进 以及人均GDP的提升需要人民币保持一个相对强势的走势，但短期快速升值会制约当下出口，政策面需 平衡二者的关系，人民币可能从长期看会进入一个长期的升值趋势，升值速度不会过于激进且过程中 仍会是双向波动。 2.公安部联合缅甸、泰国执法部门在缅甸妙瓦底地区开展新一轮赌诈园区集中清剿行动，集中抓捕犯 罪嫌疑人。点评：东南亚的电诈产业已经成为该地区经济发展的一大阻碍，中国与东盟介入泰柬冲突 调节，双方目前正在推进停火谈判相关事宜。本次冲突除了领土之争外，柬埔寨的电诈产业也是关注 焦点，战后中国分别与泰国、柬埔寨及东盟是否深化合作，柬埔寨是否回归正常产业发展值得关注。 1 ...

鑫新闻 研究所日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 星期三 1.据中国证券报，近期多家公募机构召开2026年度策略会，多位基金经理围绕AI科技、消费、创新药 等热门板块的后续投资机遇展开深度探讨。多数机构对2026年市场上涨动力预判为从单一的估值驱动 逐渐转向"盈利+估值"双重驱动。点评：12月的中央经济工作会议以及此前的中央政治局会议均将鼓 励消费、优化消费鼓励政策作为2026年经济政策重点，前期的"两新"政策虽然短期提振了消费，但 其持续性不强，副作用明显，2026年可能聚焦服务消费等可持续消费领域施政引导。AI科技相关领域 毫无疑问将持续成为市场关注焦点，在经济动能转变的背景下，科技板块有着一致且长久的政策预期 和成长预期。 2.央行方面，23日当天开展593亿7天质押式逆回购，当日到期OMO1353亿元，净回笼资金760亿元。点 评：如前期判断本次跨年资金压力不大，流动性缺口较小，货币市场资金价格平稳，OMO存量降至5000 亿以下，为今年以来的较低水平，当下人民币汇率总体升值明显，离岸人民币汇率不断创出年内新高， 这与美元贬值以及年末居民结汇需求短期释放有关，当下货币政策空间较大。 1.当日A股总 ...

研究所日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 星期二 鑫新闻 1.万科20亿元债券展期方案再次被否，已于12月15日到期的"22万科MTN004"展期方案仍未获得债券 持有人同意，不过万科争取到将宽限期延长至30个交易日的成果，该中期票据在2026年1月28日前不 构成违约。点评：11月万科再次迎来股债双杀，23万科01二级市场净价一度跌破18元/张，股票最低价 触及4.7元，万科此次债务兑付问题成为市场判断地产行业债务风险化解政策取向的标志性事件。 2.金融方面，中国12月LPR出炉，1年期为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均连续7个月保持不变。贵金 属价格再创新高，12月22日，伦敦现货金收盘4443.97美元/盎司，现货白银则首次突破69美元/盎司。 目前，华尔街普遍对黄金继续走高持乐观态度，高盛预计明年金价将进一步上涨至4900美元/盎司。 点评：我们保持前期的判断，认为明年最早在年初LPR或有一次下降，尤其是5年期LPR。贵金属方面， 2022年之前美联储扩表与缩表，很大程度上对应的美元的放水与回笼，相应国际金价的上行与承压， 2022年之后该规律被打破，在美联储缩表期间金价近三年来屡创新高， ...

鑫新闻 研究所日报 2025 年 12 月 18 日 星期四 1.财政部公布数据显示，今年前11个月，全国财政收入20.05万亿元，同比增长0.8%，增幅与前10个 月持平。点评：从一般公共预算收入上来说，2023年至今中央和地方收入的同比表现出现分化，中央 层面从2023年下半年开始同比增幅下降，2024年至今连续两年同比萎缩，今年降幅呈现收窄趋势。地 方层面2024年初同比增速最低下降至0附近，此后至今增幅逐渐扩大。从政府性基金收入来看，主要受 到土地出让金下跌的影响，地方财政跌幅显著高于中央层面，2021年底至今总体和地方层面的政府性 基金收入同比几乎持续萎缩，中央层面同比表现多数时段在增长区间，最近两个月同比几乎持平。 2.据证券时报，"十五五"开局之年，适度宽松的货币政策要努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升，这 首先要求明年金融总量保持合理增长，充分满足实体经济融资需求，明年结构性工具将聚焦扩大内需、 科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，继续支持金融"五篇大文章"。点评：充分满足实体经济融资需 求与扩大内需相辅相成，终端需求是拉动企业投资的根本动力，进而决定企业融资需求。当下中国货 币政策持续宽松了数年，在 ...

Economic Data Summary - The national industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, while the service production index rose by 4.2%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year [2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, with manufacturing investment up by 1.9% and real estate development investment down by 15.9% [2] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November [2] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.55% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.1%, with total trading volume at 1.773439 trillion yuan, a decrease of 318.767 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4] - Internationally, European stock indices rose while Asian indices fell, with the UK FTSE 100, France's CAC40, and Germany's DAX increasing by 1.06%, 0.7%, and 0.07% respectively [4] Monetary and Credit Conditions - The 10-year government bond yield was at 1.8494%, with a change of +0.86 basis points [5] - In November, total social financing (TSF) grew by 8.5% year-on-year, with new RMB loans amounting to 390 billion yuan, a decrease of 190 billion yuan year-on-year [10] Inflation and Trade - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% year-on-year in November, driven by food prices, particularly vegetables, which surged to 14.5% year-on-year [11] - Exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year in November, with a notable decline in exports to the US, which fell by 29% year-on-year [11] Policy Directions - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized achieving "reasonable" and high-quality GDP growth, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting structural reforms [12] - The conference indicated a stable fiscal deficit at 4% of GDP and a continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with an emphasis on boosting consumption and stabilizing investment [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a positive overall tone from the Central Economic Work Conference, indicating a strong continuity and stability in macroeconomic policies for 2026, which aims to enhance market expectations and confidence in long-term economic growth [6][9][10] - The conference highlighted the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, with an expected fiscal effort for 2026 to remain consistent with 2025 [9][10] - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and loan rates, while guiding financial institutions to support key areas such as domestic demand and technological innovation [9][10] Group 2 - The primary task for 2026 is to expand domestic demand, with initiatives to boost consumption and stabilize investment, addressing the slowdown in investment growth observed since the second half of 2025 [10][11] - The report outlines a commitment to innovation-driven growth, emphasizing the importance of nurturing new growth drivers and enhancing the role of enterprises in innovation, alongside measures to protect intellectual property in emerging fields [11][12] - The conference addressed various social concerns, including the challenges posed by external economic conditions and domestic supply-demand imbalances, and provided clear directives to tackle these issues, thereby fostering consensus and confidence in future development [12][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The Central Politburo meeting emphasized that the economic work in 2026 should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and enhance the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies [2]. - The import in China shows a certain repair trend, while the growth rate of exports has declined slightly in the past two months, which is in line with expectations due to the high base of exports in the same period last year, weak overseas demand, and the overdraft effect of pre - export on demand [3]. - The A - share market closed higher on the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.6% [4]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, increase support for innovative consumption, focus on the reform and re - balancing themes established in the new five - year plan, and reiterate the stability of the real estate market [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Policy - The 2026 fiscal policy may continue the high - financing trend of government bonds, and the deficit rate may increase. The monetary policy will focus on improving traditional mechanisms, and large - scale interest - rate cuts are expected to be cautious. There are policy expectations for promoting consumption, and innovation, people's livelihood, and green transformation will be long - term policy orientations [2]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may set the GDP growth target for 2026 in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on innovation, consumption, and real estate market stability [9]. 3.2 Trade Data - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's cumulative export in US dollars increased by 5.4% year - on - year, with a monthly increase of 5.9%. The cumulative increase in imports was - 0.6%, and the monthly increase was 1.9% [3]. 3.3 Financial Market - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.6%, and the two - market trading volume increased by 3108.75 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day [4]. - International market: The South Korean Composite Index rose 1.34%, the Wande All - A Index rose 1.04%, the Russian RTS Index fell 1.75%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.23%, the US three major stock indexes closed down, the German DAX rose slightly by 0.07%, the French CAC40 fell slightly by 0.08%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.23% [4]. - Interest rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.8526%, with a change of + 0.4BP, and the average prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 on the day were 1.3718% and 1.4940% respectively [5]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - In November, the sales volume of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 33% year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in the first 6 days of December was 34%. The contract sales volume of top - 100 developers in November decreased by 37% year - on - year, and the number of second - hand housing listings in 50 cities increased by 10% year - on - year [7]. - Vanke is seeking bondholders' approval to postpone the repayment of two domestic bonds worth 200 million yuan and 370 million yuan respectively, and the bondholders' meetings are scheduled for December 10 and 22 [8]. - UBS expects that in November, the year - on - year decline in real estate sales will expand (down 20 - 25% year - on - year), and real estate investment will continue to contract deeply (down 23% year - on - year) [10]. 3.5 Economic Forecast - UBS expects that in 2026, the GDP growth target will be in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and the GDP growth rate will fall to 4.5%. The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies [9]. - For the November official data, UBS expects that real estate sales will decline more, real estate investment will contract deeply, infrastructure investment decline will narrow slightly, retail and export sales will improve slightly, industrial production growth will slow down, official social financing and credit growth may slightly decrease, CPI may improve, and PPI decline may narrow slightly [10].