为您服务？：乌兹别克斯坦服务导向型增长的前景（英）2024

Industry Overview - The services sector in Uzbekistan accounts for more than half of all jobs and has been central to structural transformation over the past three decades, with its share of total employment increasing from 37% to 50% between 1991 and 2022 [21] - The services sector's share of value-added rose from 35% to 44% over the same period, offsetting declines in agriculture and industry [21] - Labor productivity growth in the services sector between 2011 and 2021 exceeded that in both industry and agriculture, reversing previous trends [21] Services Sector Composition - The services sector is grouped into four categories: low-skilled consumer services, low-skilled enabling services, global innovator services, and social services [23] - Social services accounted for three-fourths of employment growth in the services sector between 2017–2022, driven by increased public spending [23] - Global innovator services (ICT, professional, and financial services) have the highest levels of labor productivity but account for only about 4% of total services employment [25] Trade and FDI - Growth of Uzbekistan's services exports has lagged behind its manufactures' exports, while FDI greenfield announcements to both sectors have been even [22] - FDI inflows to the services sector have increased over the past decade, with announced investments into services matching those in the manufacturing sector between 2020 and 2023 [73] Policy Recommendations - Uzbekistan can leverage the services sector for growth through progress along three areas: connectivity, contestability, and capabilities (3Cs) [27] - Connectivity improvements include investments in physical and digital infrastructure, while contestability focuses on reducing trade restrictions and increasing market competition [27][35] - Capabilities involve enhancing worker skills and management practices, with a focus on advanced technical education and vocational training [27][33] Economic Impact of Reforms - Reforms to reduce restrictions on services trade could increase real GDP by 9% with partial liberalization and by 17% with full liberalization [36] - The liberalization of services trade is expected to increase real incomes by 8% in a partial liberalization scenario and by 16% in a full liberalization scenario [36][37] WTO Accession - Uzbekistan's prospective accession to the WTO provides an important entry point for the liberalization of the services sector, with potential benefits including increased trade and investment [37][39] - The implementation of trade facilitation and foreign direct investment reforms could increase real GDP gains from approximately 10% to about 22% [39]