全球海洋保护区的扩大和捕捞努力的重新分配（英）2025

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) is a key focus of global conservation efforts, with the "30x30" initiative aiming to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030 [3][8] - A predictive machine learning model was developed to forecast the impact of MPA expansions on global fishing effort, indicating that fishing effort would decrease inside MPAs and also outside them, leading to a global redistribution of fishing effort [3][19][24] - The magnitude of the predicted decrease in fishing effort is influenced by the placement of MPAs in relation to existing fishing activities [3][22] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the significance of MPAs in conservation and the expected increase in fully protected MPAs from less than 3% currently to a target of 30% by 2030 [8][9] - It highlights the potential economic impacts of MPAs on fishing efforts and biodiversity [9][10] Methodology - A global dataset of fishing effort was compiled using satellite-based monitoring data from 2016 to 2021, with a focus on predicting future fishing effort under various MPA expansion scenarios [13][14] - The model incorporates 42 features, including environmental, geographic, and economic factors, to predict fishing effort [13][14] Results - The model predicts that total global fishing effort will be lower under MPA expansion scenarios compared to a business-as-usual scenario, with reductions ranging from -3% to -38% depending on the MPA network [19][22] - The overlap of proposed MPAs with current fishing activity is a critical factor in determining the extent of fishing effort reduction [22][26] - Fishing effort is expected to decrease both inside and outside MPAs, challenging the conventional wisdom of "fishing-the-line" [23][24] Discussion - The findings suggest that the placement of MPAs in areas with high fishing activity will yield the most significant reductions in fishing effort [26][45] - The report emphasizes the need for careful consideration of fisher responses to MPA expansions to balance conservation goals with the livelihoods of fishing communities [45][46]