KSHG(605333) 民生证券·2025-01-22 05:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 37.68 yuan on January 21, 2025 [5][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from 600 million to 710 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1,009.12% to 1,212.46% [1]. - The company has a strong order backlog and continues to secure new projects, which supports its revenue growth and operational efficiency [3]. - The domestic market for wire harnesses is expanding, with the company positioned as a leader in this sector, benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution in the smart electric vehicle era [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of approximately 217 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 182.51% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.33% [2]. - The company’s client, Seris, achieved a significant sales volume of 96,462 vehicles in Q4 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 71.97% [2]. Order and Production Capacity - The company has a robust order volume, with a production capacity utilization rate reaching 92.65% as of H1 2024 [3]. - The projected average annual order volume for high-voltage wire harness projects from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 2.3758 million sets [3]. Market Outlook - The wire harness market in China is projected to reach a total scale of 130.7 billion yuan by 2025, indicating substantial growth potential [3]. - The average value of wire harnesses in electric vehicles is expected to increase, with the overall market dynamics favoring companies with strong R&D capabilities [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for the company are 7.75 billion yuan in 2024, 10.01 billion yuan in 2025, and 12.51 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 650 million yuan, 880 million yuan, and 1.11 billion yuan [4][8].