策略深度报告：宏微观的背离：1月经济综述

Economic Growth - In Q4 2024, China's GDP growth was 5.4%, exceeding expectations, with an annual growth rate of 5%[1] - The service sector's GDP grew by 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting improved market expectations and recovery in consumption[10] - Infrastructure investment showed significant improvement, with December growth rates of 6.3% and 11.0% for new and old standards respectively[12] Consumption and Investment - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, with retail sales of home appliances increasing by 39.3%[13] - Exports grew by 10.7% in December and 5.9% for the entire year, driving a 9.2% increase in manufacturing investment[15] - High-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 8.9% in December, outpacing overall industrial value-added growth of 6.2%[18] Challenges and Risks - There is a divergence between actual and nominal values, with a negative GDP deflator of -0.73%, leading to weaker perceived gains for microeconomic entities[19] - Industrial profits declined by 4.7% year-on-year from January to November 2024, indicating a need for improved conversion of manufacturing investment into profits[22] - External trade uncertainties, particularly from tariff measures, pose risks to global trade growth and require strategies to mitigate export volatility[23]