农林牧渔行业专题：1月USDA下调全球玉米、大豆产量，上调小麦产量

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The USDA's January forecast indicates a continued expansion of the global corn supply-demand gap, with a downward adjustment in the global corn stock-to-use ratio, which is favorable for international corn prices. Conversely, the global wheat supply-demand gap shows slight improvement, with an upward adjustment in the stock-to-use ratio. The global soybean supply is tightening, leading to a downward adjustment in the stock-to-use ratio [4][30]. Summary by Sections Corn - For the 2024/25 season, global corn production is projected at 1.214 billion tons, a decrease of 15.66 million tons from the previous year, primarily due to a 3.8 bushel per acre drop in U.S. corn yield. However, China's corn production is expected to rise to 295 million tons, a record high [10][18]. - Global corn consumption is forecasted to increase to 1.238 billion tons, up 21.25 million tons year-on-year. The ending stocks are expected to decrease to 293 million tons, down 24.12 million tons from the previous year, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 20.5%, the lowest since the 2016/17 season [6][10]. - In China, corn production is expected to reach 295 million tons, an increase of 6.08 million tons year-on-year, with a decrease in imports to 13 million tons [18][21]. Wheat - The global wheat production for 2024/25 is projected at 793.24 million tons, an increase of 2.22 million tons from the previous year, with consumption expected to rise to 801.89 million tons. The ending stocks are forecasted to decrease to 258.82 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 25.5% [30][31]. - The global wheat export volume is expected to decline to 212 million tons, down 9.22 million tons from the previous year, primarily due to reduced exports from Russia and Ukraine [30][31]. Soybeans - For the 2024/25 season, global soybean production is projected at 424 million tons, a decrease of 2.88 million tons from the previous year, while consumption is expected to rise to 406 million tons, an increase of 21.24 million tons [6][30]. - The ending stocks for soybeans are forecasted to be 128 million tons, a decrease of 3.5 million tons from the previous year, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 21.9%, the highest since the 2019/20 season [6][30].