国君食饮|行业稳量价升预期,成本下行利润率提升——啤酒行业2025年展望(3)

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral outlook for the beer industry sales in 2025, with expectations of continued structural upgrades and a downward trend in costs, while maintaining stable expenditure levels [1][2]. Core Insights - The beer industry is expected to see a slight decline in sales volume, stabilizing around the same level as 2024, with specific brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing showing more optimistic sales targets compared to the industry average [1]. - The report anticipates a continued downtrend in raw material costs, with barley prices expected to decrease year-on-year, while other costs like glass bottles remain stable and aluminum cans see limited increases [2]. - There is an expectation of an overall increase in dividend rates across the industry, with companies like Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer likely to see sustained increases in 2025-26 [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Outlook - The beer industry is projected to have neutral sales volume in 2025, with a slight decline expected compared to 2024 [1]. - Qingdao Beer and Yanjing are expected to outperform the industry, while Budweiser faces challenges in achieving its market share targets [1]. Cost Trends - The report indicates that raw material costs will continue to decline, with barley prices expected to drop and other costs remaining stable [2]. - There is no expectation of a price war in the industry, which should support profitability [2]. Dividend Expectations - The overall dividend rate in the beer industry is expected to increase, with specific companies like Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer likely to enhance shareholder returns [2].