国君能源运营|用电增速略有放缓,水电由降转增

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector, highlighting structural opportunities in sub-sectors driven by reforms [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates a shift in power generation positioning due to reforms, emphasizing the importance of selecting stocks with regional advantages and attractive dividend yields in thermal power, high-quality hydropower in favorable basins, and long-term return rates in nuclear power. It also suggests waiting for policy-driven improvements in the wind and solar sectors while selecting high-quality stocks with significant wind power ratios [1]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption Trends - In 2024, the total electricity consumption is projected to grow by 6.8% year-on-year, showing a slight deceleration compared to the previous months [2]. - The growth rates for different sectors in 2024 are as follows: primary industry +6.3%, secondary industry +5.1%, tertiary industry +9.9%, and residential consumption +10.6% [2]. - December 2024 data shows industrial value-added growth at +6.2% and retail sales growth at +3.7% [2]. Power Generation Performance - In December 2024, the power generation from large-scale power plants increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with notable changes in different energy sources [3]. - Hydropower and wind power saw a turnaround with growth rates of +5.5% and +6.6% respectively, while thermal power experienced a decline of -2.6% [3]. - Nuclear power and photovoltaic generation accelerated with growth rates of +11.4% and +28.5% respectively, attributed to favorable conditions and low base effects from the previous year [3].